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Latest nuclear fakes

Daniel Gallington
July 19, 2007

Does North Korea's little man - Kim Jong-il - think we're dumb, or what?
After all, he's now had two marathon dealings with us on his nuclear weapons program: first with the Clinton administration during the 1990s when he got a huge payoff as a result of perhaps the most naive national security negotiations ever conducted by the United States. And now, it looks like he's done it again, this time with a late second-term Bush administration, looking overeager for a national security "success" of some kind.

Why so sarcastic? Despite shutting down a nuclear reactor and allowing some IAEA inspections, it's most likely that little Mr. Kim will not give up his nuclear weapons program, and will fake it like he did the first time. If we believe anything less, we are foolish. One can only hope that we understand this and are planning accordingly — and hopefully in the context of the much larger, strategic picture for Asia and the region.

Nevertheless, some useful perspective: A nuclear North Korea (DPRK) is a serious national security concern for us — however, on a scale of one to 10, it's perhaps a two or a three, while the threat from a nuclear Iran may be off the scale altogether.

It hasn't happened overnight. The "blame" for the coming "Iran bomb" goes back a long way, through many U.S. administrations, whose collective actions (or inactions, as the case may be) have led us to where we are now. But we must deal with the Iranian nuclear problem and deal with it now. The reality that we can actually be targeted and struck in radical anger by an Iranian nuclear capability will too soon be upon us.

All one has to imagine is how the most recent conflicts in the Middle East would have been affected by an Iranian nuclear capability: If they had it, they would have used it, at least as a strategic threat — they as much said so during the last war in Lebanon. It is this set of sobering realities — not the recent North Korean nuclear and missile tests — that should be getting the bulk of our attention.

But to allow us to focus more objectively on Iran, it's important to understand why the two nuclear problems — North Korea and Iran — have little in common, other than deception.

First: Fortunately (for us) it is probably the Japanese who are the most motivated to address the North Korean nuclear and missile problem. The latest round of North Korean threats have really gotten their attention — to the extent that the Japanese actually threatened publicly to take out the DPRK missile test site with a military strike. This had to stun the Chinese (PRC), who now must deal with the unpleasant (for them) reality of a militarily resurgent Japan. Why? Along with the recent change of government in Japan, soon could come serious internal discussions about the Japanese developing their own nuclear deterrent.

Second: Motivated primarily by Japan's anger at North Korea and the concern that Japan could easily decide to go nuclear, the PRC may have long ago decided to "solve" the nuclear and missile problem with little Mr. Kim, but have waited to see how much others would contribute toward that goal as part of the new six-party talks. It is in this context — and with some irony — that the North Koreans may have to try to keep their future nuclear weapons activities secret from the Chinese as well as us and the Japanese.

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