Bayou blues

OPINION:

Those Washington Republicans not now publicly ruing Saturday’s special election loss in Louisiana are doing so in private. Democrat Don Cazayoux beat Republican Woody Jenkins in a race that cost the National Republican Congressional Committee and several conservative groups $1 million that they can scarcely afford. This amount was matched by the better-funded Democrats. Losing the Bayou State’s Sixth Congressional District after Republican Richard Baker held it for more than 20 years is one of those “minority maker” moments the party has gotten used to lately.

The Baton Rouge-area district is listed by the Cook Political Report as an “R+7” district — Republican-leaning. Mr. Baker held the seat from 1987 until his February departure to lobby with the Managed Funds Association. His Republican predecessor, Henson Moore, first won the seat in 1975. The Democrat, Mr. Cazayoux, campaigned successfully as a “John Breaux Democrat”: pro-life, pro-gun and distinctly Southern. Republicans tried and failed to tie Mr. Cazayoux to the far left in the person of Barack Obama. The margin of victory over Mr. Jenkins was 49 percent to 46 percent.

Mr. Jenkins is now badmouthed under the rubric of “poor candidate selection” by the handful of party operatives who are not willing to admit the bad news. True, Mr. Jenkins had political baggage, but that line is getting a bit stale. Recall that it was trotted out in the case of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s would-be Republican successor Jim Oberweis, who lost a March special election to Democrat Bill Foster for the suburban Illinois seat Mr. Hastert held for 18 years until his 2007 departure. It may have been more justified in that case. But suppose it is true in both cases: Select enough “bad candidates” and you end up with a sum that equals the parts. All the king’s men climbed aboard Mr. Jenkins’ candidacy: the Club for Growth, James Dobson of Focus on the Family and the National Rifle Association were among the candidate’s endorsers.

Esteemed political analyst Charlie Cook (publisher of the above-mentioned Cook report) warns against over-interpreting special elections like Louisiana’s. Well, this is a district where President Bush actually increased his vote share from 2000 to 2004 by four points (55 percent to 59 percent). This is just one election of 435. But it is one that Republicans would have won if their brand and their message were healthier.