The Washington Times - May 3, 2008, 05:20PM
friendly feelingsSen. Hillary Clinton SEE RELATED:


To: Interested Parties\ \ From: The Clinton Campaign\ \ Date: May 3, 2008\ \ RE: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?\ \ \ Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.\ \ \ \ Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina. \ \ \ \ Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?\ \ \ \ It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations - a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana’s primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.\ \ \ \ The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million — $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.\ \ \ \ Despite Senator Obama’s advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.\ \ \ \ In North Carolina, Tuesday’s other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m — $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.\ \ \ \ The Clinton campaign is closing on the big challenges and questions facing American families - who is on your side and who is best able to fight for working and middle class people on Day One in the White House?
results center
The Math\ \ Contests - Obama 30, Clinton 15 (Guam pending)\ \ Total Delegates - Obama 1747, Clinton 1608\ \ Pledged delegates Obama needs for a majority - 134\ \ Total delegates Obama needs for the nomination - 277

Christina Bellantoni, national political reporter, The Washington Times