The Washington Times - September 3, 2008, 11:10AM

Just one of the teams from the former Division I-AA beat a major-college team. That was Cal Poly, which edged San Diego State on a last-second field goal.

You might recall that was ranked the second-most likely upset among the 32 games. And while No. 1 didn’t pay off – Iowa State dusted off South Dakota State and now looks like it has a chance to enter October undefeated – that still isn’t a bad payoff.

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This week, the torrent slips to 23 games – and not all will be lopsided. Here’s a look, in order of chances for an upset, of those games.

1. New Hampshire-Army: The Black Knights were not good at all against Temple. And the Wildcats are plenty capable of scoring all day. This could be an unpleasant day for Army.

2. Idaho State-Idaho: This is a reflection of how far the Vandals must go to become respectable. Realistically, it is their best chance to win this season.

3. Western Kentucky-Eastern Kentucky: The transitioning Hilltoppers actually go on the road for this. Meanwhile, Eastern Kentucky lost last week to Cincinnati, but this should be a good game.

4. Richmond-Virginia: Spiders coach Mike London took over an 11-win team, and he came from Charlottesville. It’s retro day at Scott Stadium; Virginia just has to hope the clocks aren’t turned back to the pre-George Welsh era of constant futility.

5. William & Mary-N.C. State: It’s the Tribe’s season-opener, and the Wolfpack (a) lost its starting quarterback to a concussion and (b) Hasn’t scored in the last nine quarters. Anything’s possible, especially in Raleigh on Saturday.

6. Texas State-Southern Methodist: Sure, the Mustangs got rolled last week against Rice. But they should handle a second-division Southland team.

7. Northwestern State-Baylor: The Demons aren’t world-beaters in the Southland, and that’s precisely what Baylor needs to see right now.

8. Montana State-Kansas State: This sure beats losing to Fresno State, doesn’t it, K-State?

9. Eastern Washington-Colorado: Buffaloes draw a team that did about as well as could be expected against Texas Tech. This could be interesting for a while.

10. Norfolk State-Kentucky: Wildcats should roll to 2-0 against undermanned Spartans.

11. Sacramento State-Colorado State: Rams should collect their first victory under new coach Steve Fairchild.

12. Weber State-Hawaii: Never underestimate the physical cost of a flight halfway across the Pacific.

13. Murray State-Indiana: Already starting to delve pretty deep into the blowouts waiting to happen.

14. SE Louisiana-Mississippi State: It might be Croom-and-Doom all over if the Bulldogs go 0-for-Louisiana in their nonconference schedule.

15. Texas Southern-Arkansas State: First of all, Arkansas State is the major-college program here. And since the Red Wolves beat Texas A&M last week, and since Texas Southern was winless in 2007, this probably isn’t offering enough respect.

16. Furman-Virginia Tech: Tyrod Taylor is expected to play again. And that should give the Hokies back some of their mojo.

17. Tennessee Tech-Louisville: Cardinals will wash away Sunday’s debacle against Kentucky with an old-fashioned pounding.

18. Eastern Illinois-Illinois: Sorry, but the Illini won’t drop two in a row to start the season.

19. Northern Colorado-Purdue: There will be no surprises as Joe Tiller’s final season commences.

20. The Citadel-Clemson: OK, the Tigers produced their usual clunker when expectations were high. They’ll get well over the next few weeks, starting with this visit from a small, in-state school.

21. Stephen F. Austin-Texas Christian: Lumberjacks’ over/under for total yardage against stingy Horned Frogs is about 90.

22. Western Carolina-Florida State: The Seminoles are riddled with suspensions. It simply won’t matter against a team that went 1-10 last year.

23. SE Missouri State-Missouri: It doesn’t matter if Jeremy Maclin plays; the Tigers will cruise.

Patrick Stevens