The Washington Times - April 29, 2009, 10:09PM

TOWSON, Md. – This could have been a pretty easy NCAA lacrosse tournament to forecast.

Could have been.

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Instead, it’s only Wednesday and there’s already been one severe upset and nearly another.

Hofstra, a likely at-large selection because of its quality RPI and a marquee victory, lost at home to Villanova. Meanwhile, UMBC needed double-overtime to escape a not-so-great Binghamton team in Catonsville.

The shakeout? UMBC doesn’t look all that imposing entering the America East final against Stony Brook. And either Towson (a 10-2 winner against Drexel) or Villanova is going to swipe a berth, which is a wrench no one saw coming.

So who loses? The obvious answer is Brown, who would be vulnerable if it loses to Princeton. There’s also Georgetown, which might not even get in even with a defeat of Penn State on Saturday.

It also increases the risk for either Loyola or Maryland to miss the field. Loyola has some favorable numbers but is lacking top-flight wins and has to play at Hopkins on Saturday. Maryland owns two sweet victories (Duke and North Carolina) and faces a must-win at Yale.

Patrick Stevens