About those fundraising numbers

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IowaSen. Barack Obama’s fundraising announcementan e-mail today
Frankly, when we entered this race, we did not think that was possible. We estimated at this point of the campaign we’d be at least $20-25 million behind one of our fellow candidates. But due to the amazing outpouring of support from people all across the country, remarkably, we should be on at least even financial footing for the duration of the campaign.\ \ \ Secondly, because so many states are holding early contests that may have significant impact on deciding the ultimate Democratic nominee, a winning campaign will need deep organizations in dozens of states to prevail. Our more than 258,000 donors provide us the foundation of an unprecedented volunteer army in all 50 states. …\ \ \ We’re pleased to be running as strongly as we are in the national polls, but they are beside the point in a process that will be shaped by a series of early contests that will begin in Iowa.\ \ \ One of our opponents is also the quasi-incumbent in the race, who in our belief will and should lead just about every national poll from now until the Iowa caucuses. Expect nothing different and attach no significance to it. It is clear you did not in this past quarter and we would encourage everyone to keep our sights focused on doing well in the early primaries and caucuses, and then using our organizational advantage nationally to clinch the nomination in February.\ \ \ Just as a refresher, below are some Democratic primary national polls going back to \ 1980. You’ll see how effective they have been as crystal balls.\ \
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  • 2003: In August 2003, Joe Lieberman led the national polls, in September, Howard Dean led, in October, Wesley Clark led, and in December — one month before the Iowa Caucuses — a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll showed John Kerry, the eventual nominee, in fifth place trailing among others Joe Lieberman and Dick Gephardt. Yet after winning Iowa and New Hampshire, Kerry vaulted to 49% in national polls before the end of January, This has been true in nearly every previous Democratic nomination contest:\ \
  • 1992: According to a November 1991 Los Angeles Times poll, Bill Clinton was in 3rd place with less than half the support of the then-frontrunner, Jerry Brown.\ \
  • 1988: A January 1988 New York Times/CBS Poll showed Michael Dukakis in fourth place with 6 percent.\ \
  • 1980: An August 1979 poll showed President Carter trailing Senator Ted Kennedy by 36 points. …\
\ \ If we prevail in the nomination fight, there is mounting evidence that Barack Obama would be the strongest general election candidate. Barack is consistently the strongest Democrat with independents in general election polling, who are the voters that are the pathway to the presidency. Barack also has a 2-1 fav/unfav with general election voters, which is also the best score in the Democratic field. That strength with independents, plus what would likely be very strong Democratic turnout across the country as a result of an Obama candidacy, also likely puts more states in play. We cannot afford another election where we have to run the table to win the Electoral College.
— Christina Bellantoni, national political reporter, The Washington Times

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Christina Bellantoni

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