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Gallup: No immediate 'Ryan bounce' for Romney

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Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney did not receive an immediate bounce in his poll numbers following the Saturday announcement of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, Gallup said Wednesday.

The four days of daily tracking before Mr. Romney made the announcement gave the former Massachusetts governor a 1-point lead over President Obama, at 46 percent to 45 percent. In the four days after the announcement, Mr. Ryan moved the needle just 1 point, with Mr. Romney leading 47 percent to 45 percent.

Jeffrey M. Jones of Gallup did write, however, that Mr. Romney may see a “delayed bump,” as his Aug. 13-14 numbers were better than his Aug. 11-12 numbers.

From 1996 to 2004, the vice presidential selection typically gave the presidential nominee an immediate boost, though it didn’t necessarily translate to winning the fall election. Then-Sen. Bob Dole got a 9-point bump in 1996 after selecting Jack Kemp, a former Republican New York congressman; in 2000, then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush got a 3-point bump after selecting Dick Cheney and then-Vice President Al Gore got a 5-point boost after announcing his selection of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman; and Sen. John Kerry got a 4-point bump in the first poll after announcing then-Sen. John Edwards as his ticket mate in 2004.

In 2008, however, the immediate results were less pronounced. Then-Sen. Barack Obama’s support actually decreased 2 points after he announced then-Sen. Joseph R. Biden as his running mate, while Sen. John McCain got a 2-point bump immediately following his selection of then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

“Gallup Daily tracking in the coming days may reveal greater movement toward Romney, though the more days that pass after the Ryan announcement, the less likely it is that the movement will be due to choosing Ryan as opposed to other possible factors,” Mr. Jones wrote. “The next scheduled major event that will have the potential to affect the race will be the Republican convention, which begins Aug. 27 in Tampa.”

The results for the post-announcement figures are based on Gallup daily tracking from Aug. 11-14, with a random sample of 1,863 registered voters. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.

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