Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is effectively running even with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in an early look at a possible 2016 presidential match-up in the Sunshine State, with Mr. Bush leading potential rivals in a would-be GOP primary there.
Mrs. Clinton holds a 2-point lead over Mr. Bush, 47 percent to 45 percent — within the new Quinnipiac University poll’s margin of error.
In a hypothetical GOP primary match-up, Mr. Bush gets 22 percent of the vote, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is at 18 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie gets 14 percent, and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is at 12 percent. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is at 9 percent.
Mrs. Clinton holds leads outside the margin of error over all of those other Republicans, ranging from a 4-point advantage over Mr. Christie to a 16-point lead against Mr. Cruz.
By a 56 percent to 39 percent margin, voters say Mrs. Clinton would make a good president, compared to a 45-35 percent split for Mr. Christie and a near-even 46-44 percent split for Mr. Bush.
“It’s no surprise that Hillary Clinton is well thought of by Florida voters, but when asked whether she would be a good president, more voters say yes than say they will vote for her,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Nonetheless, she is neck-and-neck with former Gov. Jeb Bush and has a narrow lead over Chris Christie. Another Florida favorite son, Sen. Marco Rubio, doesn’t fare as well.”
In the 1992 presidential election, Mr. Bush’s father, former President George H.W. Bush, narrowly defeated Mrs. Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, in the state, 41 percent to 39 percent. Independent Ross Perot took about 20 percent of the vote.
The survey conducted Nov. 12-17 of 1,646 registered voters has a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points. It includes 668 Republicans, with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.