The Washington Times - November 4, 2008, 01:29PM

Paul Maslin, a Democratic Pollster writing for Salon.com, said he anticipates an Obama victory — he said the only thing still left in the balance is the electoral count. In “How to read the numbers on Election Day,” Mr. Maslin points out five ways to interpret the numbers as they come out:

  • Obama, according to Mr. Maslin, has the advantage of this larger electorate, as this includes more young and minority voters than in past years. These voters could be the difference in traditionally red Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado.
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  • Whether undecided voters push for McCain — based on the Bradley Effect or otherwise — will also affect the final electoral count. 
  • The economy’s impact will also play into the minds of these undecided voters, who have typically sought Obama as their candidate-of-choice. If the economy has truly been the primary  issue for voters, Maslin said, this may work in Obama’s favor, granting him a majority in swing states like Pennsylvania or Ohio.
  • Exit polls may even be more accurate this year, Maslin said, as they may not actually lean more Democratic than the actual vote, as they have in previous elections.
  • If Obama breaks the 50 percent mark, he will be the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter to win an actual majority of the votes cast. A low vote for third party candidates like Bob Barr or Ralph Nader may influence his total number of votes.

— Jen Calantone, intern, The Washington Times