Chat Details

NBC Political Director Chuck Todd 07-24-08

This chat will begin at 11 a.m. on Thursday, July 24, 2008.

Chuck Todd became NBC News’ political director in March 2007. Mr. Todd is responsible for all aspects of NBC News' political coverage, including maintaining contact with the campaigns and serving as the point person for political news and information. He is also the editor of "First Read," NBC's must-read guide to political news and trends in and around Washington, D.C., and writes weekly columns of analysis for MSNBC.com.

Transcript

1. • Minnesota Governor, Tim Pawlenty, has been a McCain supporter since day 1. Moreover, it seems that Sen. McCain puts a huge premium on loyalty and that he will reward Pawlenty w/ the VP spot. What do you think? by
   • Answer: Pawlenty is getting lots of buzz among GOP insiders... I just don't know if Pawlenty passes McCain's own "ready to be president" test... I think Pawlenty is one of the more unique thinkers in the party and definitely part of the future; probably a presidential player himself in either '12 or '16; but will he be THE guy to help McCain relaunch himself as "change" and "not Bush third term"? by
2. • Although we are a few months away from the elections; what is your "upset special" of the cycle? by
   • Answer: Well, there's many places one can go with this... on the presidential level, a McCain victory could be classified is an upset... Or McCain carrying Michigan and NOT winning the presidency could be an upset. But leaving aside the presidential, I think the upset specials could be on the Senate level. From KY to KS to NC to TX and even GA, there are races which could end up in play that the Democrats have no business winning. Should the Democrats actually get to 60 senate seats, they'll need to win one or more of those five I just highlighted and any one of those five would be considered MAJOR upsets. But in this political environment right now for the GOP, anything is possible. by
3. • This must be your biggest year yet for exposure; NBC News, MSNBC, Hotline, online chats....What do you do with any free time that you have? by
   • Answer: All of my free time is devoted to my daughter and my son... there's not much of it but trying to convince my daughter that she does know how to swim has become my new weekend past time. As for my son, it's convincing him that he can walk without holding on to his sister's hand. by
4. • What are you hearing about the reports that Senator John Edwards was spotted in Los Angeles, with a child from a woman, other than his wife? How likely is it that this will pick up steam and make its way to the political talk shows? by
   • Answer: I think a lot of news organizations are reminding themselves that Edwards is a private citizen and no longer running for any office. Should he end up being nominated for some public position, many news organizations may start looking into these allegations. But for now, he's a private citizen. by
5. • Do you think Obama is responding correctly to the question of whether or not the surge has been successful? If not,what do you suggest would be a better response? by
   • Answer: Like many folks, I'm a bit confused by his surge answer... I think he's coming awfully close to sounding like a politician who is trying to have it both ways. For the life of me, I don't understand why either McCain or Obama is afraid to say, "yeah, I was wrong about x" -- it's what voters are screaming for... straight answers, authenticity; it's what both candidates benefited from in the primaries but now both are afraid to ever look like they've EVER been wrong. by
6. • Aside from NBC's internal polling data, where do you get your information from? by
   • Answer: The polls I trust the most this year (other than our own... of course) are the ones the campaigns are conducting, whether on the pres. level or via senate, GOV and house campaigns. I just think professional campaign pollsters have a better handle on getting it right than these public insta-polls that are driving too much of the Internet political conversation these days. by
7. • You have just exploded onto the mainstream media stream. Can you tell us a bit about your background and how you got to this point in your career? by
   • Answer: Before NBC, I worked at The Hotline, the daily must-read political news service for professional political junkies. I toiled there on and off since '92, starting by covering House races in '92 and moving up the ladder there. For anyone interested in covering politics, there's no better place to start than The Hotline and no better beat than House races... it's the crime beat of politics. You really learn about national politics from the ground level when you cover House races. It's the best training I could have had, other than getting the privilege to work for Tim Russert for 15 invaluable months. by
8. • Who are your idols in the business of politics? by
   • Answer: The person who taught me more about politics (other than my father) was Doug Bailey, the founder of The Hotline and before that a legendary Republican media consultant. Tim Russert is the political journalist all of us in this business aspire to be. I still can't believe I was lucky enough to spend the short amount of time I had learning from him. My cousin and another Hotline alum, Bob Balkin, continues to be someone I look up to (but don't tell him I said that). by
9. • The media's received a lot of criticism for its coverage of Barack Obama vs. John McCain. Do you feel that Obama's received preferential treatment? As director of NBC's political coverage, how do you ensure your company gives both candidates a fair shake? by
   • Answer: I can't believe it's taken 10 questions before I got this one! Seriously, it's the thing I wake up and worry about most every single day. It's not that I don't have confidence in our ability to be fair. I do... but I want to inspire confidence in the viewers that what they are watching is fair. We can only cover the campaign in front of us and Obama has provided more opportunities for covering him in newsmaking settings than McCain; it's as simple as that. I think the new guy in a presidential campaign always gets a tad more coverage simply because voters seem to want to know more. Look at our own NBC-WSJ poll just out last night... By a 2-1 margin, voters told us they focus more on the idea of a President Obama than a President McCain. That doesn't mean, they are favoring McCain; it just means they are trying to figure out this Obama guy. They have an idea about what a McCain presidency is going to look like. They don't yet on Obama; doesn't that strike you as a call for more explanation of who this Obama is? I think McCain, on many fronts, is probably happy he isn't getting the same intense scrutiny. Something the Obama campaign constantly complains about. by
10. • What are the 2-3 stories that you are surprised more people are not talking about in politics? by
    • Answer: On the issue front: the plight of the exurbs. These geographic areas were 2004 phenomenons and this year we aren't telling their stories regarding the economic pinch they are feeling. It's in the exurbs where folks are getting hit by both falling house prices and higher gas prices (long commutes). On the demographic front: I'm surprised there hasn't been more attention to the reaction in the African-American community about Obama. You'd think we'd see a lot of stories about turnout and excitement (or lack thereof though I assume there's excitement). What do young black men think of their futures now vs. six months ago? What about older black voters who have their own memories. Whether Obama wins or loses, there are some remarkable stories to tell, at least I would assume. by
    • Answer: I forgot two other issues which deserve more attention: Russia and China. I think the next president is going to have to deal with the dual challenges of those two countries, perhaps, more often than with any country in the Mideast; just my guess... therefore, we should be demanding more answers from the candidates on their knowledge and thoughts about the U.S. relations with those two super powers. by
11. • Which freshman members of Congress do you think are in legitimate trouble of not getting re-elected? by
    • Answer: The three that jump out are Carol Shea-Porter in NH 01, Nancy Boyda in KS 02 and Tim Mahoney in FL 16... Demographics suggest Carney in PA 10 and Lampson in TX 22 could also go down. I assume at least one of these five lose... Then again, if the Dem tide is as strong as it looks now, then why should we assume any Dem incumbent is going to lose. No Dem incumbent lost in '06 by
12. • What are the chances of a second consecutive "wave" election for 2008? by
    • Answer: Historically, there should be NO chance... You just don't see two straight waves. But I think one of the more under-covered stories of this cycle is the dominance of the Dem Party down the ballot. It's possible Dems may win more senate seats this year than they did in '06... And frankly, when you look at the quality of Dem candidates this year vs. '06, the '08 candidates pale in comparison. On the House level, I doubt seriously Dems can top the 31 seats they picked up in '06 but they could top 20 if the wave is as strong as it looks now... I've joked to some that Obama needs to grab on to the reverse coattails of the GOP if he wants to win because the Dem success in the House and Senate seems locked in; the most vulnerable Dem appears to be Obama. by
13. • Hi Chuck - Big fan, of course. I'm curious how you feel about all of your fame of late! You've got people weighing in on your goatee, a whole fan site devoted to you and even get people calling you "Chucky T" on MSNBC. Are you getting used to being a star? Also, please tell Kristian I said hello. Cheers! by
    • Answer: Ha... thanks for the shout out to Kristian; I'll pass along. It's still a little humbling... If it ever isn't humbling, hit me over the head please. by
14. • Thanks for doing this chat because I would really like to get your insight on this issue: Evangelicals were really upset when McCain became the nominee and threatened not to support him in November. Now, James Dobson announced that Evangelicals may support McCain, after all. If that voting block doesn't support the GOP candidate, they would be sure to lose. Therefore, they were just fuming and would never really support Obama. Your thoughts??? by
    • Answer: I think the self-described leaders of the evangelical movement don't necessarily speak for the rank n file. Sure, McCain doesn't spark enthusiasm among evangelicals but so far, all evidence points to him securing similar margins as Bush. The question, of course, is intensity of support (and total percentage of the electorate evangelicals make up). If there is an enthusiasm problem and McCain picks a running mate like, say, Tom Ridge which makes things worse for a James Dobson, then I might be nervous about McCain's chances of holding GA and NC... but I really think that as long as he doesn't have the evangelical turnout completely bottom out, he'll be alright because this really would only be a problem in GA and NC. by
15. • I heard that you have "Rainman" like capabilities with congressional races. How safe do you think Gus Bilirakis (FL-09) and Don Young (Alaska) are, in November? by
    • Answer: I'm willing to bet that Don Young is not coming back to Congress. the question is will he even win the GOP nomination. My guess is that he won't win that primary next month; but we'll see. If I were the NRCC, I'd be hoping Young doesn't win. As for Bilirakis, I've been down this road of Dems claiming they'll put more Florida House seats in play only to see them come close but not win. I think the year to have beaten Bilirakis would have been last cycle; If he won with the baggage of having the last name of an incumbent Congressman (even though he wasn't one), then I'm guessing he'll survive... Frankly, a lot of this could depend on how strongly Obama runs in Florida and how much money he spends in the state. by
16. • Dear Mr. Todd, do you have any plans to run for office yourself in the future? by
    • Answer: For about a half hour one day in high school, I thought I could run for state Rep. in Miami and beat the incumbent. Then I passed something to my left and turned up the Steve Miller tune that for some reason was always playing in my car at the time. Seriously, the answer is no. I'm having too much fun doing what I do... don't charge me with the responsibility of actually trying to figure out the problems of government. by
17. • Based on all of the numbers that you have seen thus far, please make a prediction on who you believe (not want or like)....just logically believe will win the White House this November. by
    • Answer: Here's how I (don't) answer this question: I think realistically there are three possible results in November and two of them have Obama winning: He wins in a landslide (meaning he surpasses the fairly low bar of commander in chief test); He wins in a close race (meaning he doesn't answer the questions about his ability to be president but his organization is so good and the wind at the Dem back is so strong pulls him across the finish line; think Carter '76) or McCain wins a close race, somehow sweeps MI, PA and OH. I think all three are fairly equal results at this point. by
18. • This week's New Yorker contains a profile of Dennis Shulman, a blind rabbi running challenging Republican Rep. Scott Garrett in the Jersey suburbs of New York. What are the chances that he unseats Garrett? by
    • Answer: One thing I always fear is contracting "been there, done that" disease. But I have to say, Dems targeting Scott Garrett and NJ 05 in general is something I've seen a few times and Garrett always seems to win comfortably. It's just so expensive to win the seat. That said, if there was ever a year where Democrats could steal this seat, it's this one. I have my doubts but when a political wave hits, even marginal seats come in for the wave-surfing party. by
19. • Please explain how "tides" work. Is it realistic that people will just vote for the Democratic candidates because they are just sick of Bush or the war or the economy ...and just think that anything is better than what we have now? Is there data from other elections or cycles to support this concept? by
    • Answer: Tides are not massive on a micro level, but look like it on a macro level. For instance, I think a lot of waves develop due to a combination of enthusiasm on one side vs. unenthusiasm on the other. And the combination of the two creates a massive one-sided result... basically, all 50-50 races end up, say, 51-49 but all in the same direction, creating the wave. by
20. • Mr. Todd, thank you very much for participating in our live chat here at WashingtonTimes.com. Do you have any final thoughts as we wrap up our chat? by
    • Answer: Thanks for all the great questions; much appreciated. Know that I do weekly online chats at Newsvine.com (MSNBC.com's partner in all). Ok, no more plugs. As for the campaign, continue to hold the media's feet to the fire, but also the candidates. It's amazing how little both are giving voters when it comes to the details of what they need to be do if they win... Most importantly, don't overlook the battle for Congress. Frankly, there's more to learn about the current political environment on the House and Senate level than there is on the presidential front. That campaign is somewhat immune to the political climate (I say "somewhat")... But start getting acquainted with the Senate races, a lot more may be in play than we ever thought. by