Chat Details

Pollster John Zogby 10-21-08

This chat will begin at 11 a.m. on Tuesday, October 21, 2008.

Read the transcript of the live chat with John Zogby, president of the polling firm Zogby International, who joined us on Tuesday, Oct. 21.

Transcript

1. • How can polls be accurate when the questions are usually asked during the day when most people are working? Doesn't this mean that the poll participants are predominantly unemployed people? by Brookshire, TX
   • Answer: Most calls are made in the evening. We make about 30% of our calls during the day to capture people who are repeatedly not at home in the evening. And there are many. by
2. • The Washington Times is pleased to welcome John Zogby, president of the polling firm Zogby International, for a live chat. Good morning, Mr. Zogby. Thank you for being with us again. by Jeffrey Lea
   • Answer: Hello. Great to back again. I will get right into the many questions. by
4. • Mr. Zogby, The Times has a front-page story today saying Mr. McCain is spending heavily in Pennsylvania, confident he can turn around a double-digit deficit and steal the state from Obama, as Mrs. Clinton did in the spring. Do you think there is enough uncertainty about Obama in Pennsylvania to giver McCain a chance? by Washington, DC
   • Answer: I am not in the prediction business but in the snapshot business -- but I am ready to tell you to take out your nay blue crayon and color in PA. Obama leads by 10-11 and has the support of the three biggest organizations in the state -- Rendall, Casey, and Nutter. Besides, just last week, McCain announced that he was pulling out. by
5. • Do you see the Democrats having a veto-proof 60 seats in the next Congress? by Washington, D.C.
   • Answer: It is quite possible. The election is now national and it is up to McCain to stop the Republican bleeding. by
6. • How have the polls been moving since the final debate last week? by Wash, DC
   • Answer: They did. We actually saw McCain tightening up the race after the debate -- especially by locking in strong Republican support (over 90%). But he continued to have trouble with Independents, Moderates, and some key groups like investors, military households, and NASCAR fans. The tide has turned again in Obama's favor. by
8. • What swing states are just to close to call yet? by 20002
   • Answer: New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico -- possibly Virginia and Indiana. Please note that they are all Red States. by
9. • How do the numbers look in Virginia for the presidential candidates? by 20002
   • Answer: Right now Obama holds a 7-8 point lead in VA. Changing demographics in the North and the economy are hurting McCain. To me, for the past two years, I have always felt that VA is the new Ohio and Florida. If Obama wins, it will mean that a lot of other states have gone for him. by
11. • How many more presidential polls do you plan to conduct between now and Election Day? When is the last one, and when will results be released? by Wash, DC
    • Answer: We are polling every day -- 400 likely voters each day for a 3-day rolling average of 1200 lv. We will have two rounds of ten battlegrounds states as well. All of this is for Reuters and C-SPAN. We will publish every day right up to election morning. by
12. • Has the McCain-Palin ticket gotten any bump from Gov. Palin's appearance on "Saturday Night Live"? by 20037
    • Answer: No, in fact, quite the opposite. The last two individual days have brought double-digit leads for Obama so that now he averages an 8-point lead. Remember, this audience for SNL is not Republican-friendly. It was a good thing for her to do -- but so far has not helped. by
13. • I've heard it said that Indiana may prove a bellwether in this election, since the race is very tight there, voters usually go Republican for president, and the polls close early in the evening. Should we be watching the outcome in the Hoosier State with special interest this year? by Southeastern Indiana
    • Answer: Indiana is very important. But Virginia is the bellwether, as I noted above. Obama is a neighbor of Indiana and that helps, esp the media exposure he gets from Chicago media. But if he wins Indiana, it will mean he has put together a solid coalition not only for victory but also to govern. by
15. • Your daily polls are on the news almost every day. How long have you been doing polling, and how did you learn this craft? by Washington, DC
    • Answer: 24 years. I ran for mayor of Utica, N.Y., in 1981 and did some polling with my college students. Good news: I knew just how much I was going to lose by before anyone else. Then thought: I would rather be right than President. Started this company in 1984. by
16. • The selection of Sarah Palin for running mate was a big gamble for McCain. It stirred up the pot quite a bit at the outset. As the campaign now approaches the end, is that selection considered a net positive or a net negative for McCain? Have Henry Kissinger and Al Haig really explicitly endorsed McCain? How can they really pretend that Sarah Palin could run this country in a moment of need? by mclean Va
    • Answer: I think she has been a net plus. She helped bring home conservatives in a big way and brought in a fresh face that stole a lot of Obama's thunder from his convention speech. But the biggest thing is that she was then supposed to give McCain cover to run in the center while she handled the right. He lost control of his message with the financial crisis -- was confused, said the wrong things, and looked frantic for a bit. Then the focus was on Bill Ayers. When people -- rich and not so rich -- lost 40% of their portfolios and future, they didn't want to hear about Ayers. by
18. • You had a poll yesterday that found Obama winning 70 percent of Hispanics. McCain was supposed to be the Republicans' great hope to capture that constituency. What has happened? by Alexandria, VA
    • Answer: McCain was the only one of the announced Republican candidates with creds among Hispanics. And we have shown him regaining some of the dismal support among Republicans among Hispanics. While Bush got 40% in 2004, that figure dipped down to 28% Hispanic support in 2006 elections. I suppose McCain will end up in low thirties -- an improvement but an indication of how much the Republican brand has been hurt among this important and growing group of Americans. It was the economy that hurt him. by
19. • Whom are you voting for? by youngstown, oh
    • Answer: Very tastefully asked. Nice try. by
20. • Mr. Zogby, we're coming to the end of our chat. Thanks for taking time out of your schedule during this busy election season to be with us. Are there any last words you would like to leave with our readers? by Jeffrey Lea
    • Answer: Thanks. Lots of fun. Great questions. by