- The Washington Times - Monday, December 27, 1999

White women the largest group of voters prefer New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani over the first lady in their likely Senate race, according to the state's three main polls.
"Nobody in New York has won in the memory of mankind without white women," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute, which first noted the discrepancy.
Women not only constitute 52 percent of the population, they usually account for the biggest chunk of voter turnout, Mr. Carroll and other polling experts say.
In the latest Quinnipiac poll, 47 percent of white women preferred Mr. Giuliani, compared with 40 percent for Mrs. Clinton.
Among all female voters surveyed, 47 percent preferred Mrs. Clinton compared with 41 percent for Mr. Giuliani.
"She has got to pick up greater support among women. She can't just lead by 5, 6, 7 points," pollster John Zogby said. "She cannot win unless she has the support of white women."
Polling by Zogby Group International Inc. over the past year found that 49 percent of white women surveyed planned to vote for Mr. Giuliani and 39 percent for Mrs. Clinton. While Mrs. Clinton is beating Mr. Giuliani hands down among black voters 85 points to his 8 she is "is drawing much better support among African-American men than women thus far," Mr. Zogby said.
The most recent poll by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion shows Mr. Giuliani beating Mrs. Clinton 48 percent to 38 percent among white women and 49 percent to 40 percent among all registered voters in the survey.
"That should be one of her prime groups," poll director Lee Miringoff said. "She is more likely to do better among this group than white men."
Mr. Miringoff said one reason she lacks more substantial support from white women is her "rough transition" from first lady to first-time candidate.
Loyalty is another factor keeping Mrs. Clinton from scoring more points with women, according to pollster Frank Luntz, an adviser to Mr. Giuliani.
During the Monica Lewinsky scandal, women admired her loyalty to President Clinton, but now they view her as disloyal because of her flip-flops on issues, Mr. Luntz said.
"One thing that is very important to women is the concept of loyalty," he said. "The very thing that made her popular among women before she was a candidate is making her unpopular now."
Mr. Luntz said polls generally show that Mrs. Clinton "is the most popular figure among women 18 to 34," but "men 50 and older don't like her."
"She reminds them of their first wives," he said.
Mrs. Clinton's pollster, Mark Penn, did not return calls.
Mr. Zogby said he is finding that the "carpetbagging" issue is still hurting Mrs. Clinton who has never lived in New York particularly upstate and in the New York City suburbs.
He expects Mrs. Clinton's support from white women to grow as she and Mr. Giuliani "begin to zero in on real issues" that women typically care about, such as education and health care. But it could also prompt some voters to remember Mrs. Clinton's spectacular failure on health care reform.
In addition to winning over white women, Mr. Zogby said the first lady needs four other things to triumph in November: an increase in black voter turnout, a win in upstate New York cities, a cut in Mr. Giuliani's margin in the suburbs and a blunder by the mayor.
"It is possible those four things will happen," political analyst Charlie Cook wrote recently in the National Journal. "But it will take more than a strong campaign effort by [Mrs.] Clinton. She will also need some luck."
Some experts also say her husband's impeachment could haunt the first lady.
"If there is Clinton fatigue," pollster Maurice Carroll said, Mrs. Clinton would provide a "living, breathing" reminder of it.

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