Inside the Ring

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Leadership split

Despite the outward appearance of tranquility, China is in the midst of a power struggle between the old and new regimes. The leadership, we are told, is divided between a faction led by President Hu Jintao and a faction led by former President Jiang Zemin, who still controls the Chinese military as chairman of the Central Military Commission.

Mr. Jiang is viewed as a hard-liner, especially on the Republic of China (Taiwan), and is continuing to pull strings within Mr. Hu's regime through Vice President Zeng Qinghong, who is considered a Jiang loyalist. Mr. Zeng wields vast authority within the ruling Communist Party dictatorship and is thought to covet Mr. Hu's posts of party chairman and president. Both men have been in power since March 2003.

The leadership split has worried U.S. defense and intelligence officials because of growing tensions over Taiwan. China's government has stepped up rhetoric against Taiwan in recent months after the re-election of Taiwanese leader Chen Shui-bian.

A major danger is the period leading up to the May 20 inauguration of Mr. Chen, when U.S. officials think that China might engage in some kind of provocation, such as large-scale military exercises or missile tests.

The fear is that with rivals vying for power in Beijing, Chinese leaders might lack flexibility within the inner councils of the Communist Party. That, in turn, could lead to miscalculation that could lead to military action.

Power shift

Rep. C.W. Bill Young, the patient and cordial chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, is term-limited after the 2004 election. But that does not mean that party rules -- which limit chairmen to six-year terms -- will keep him from wielding the gavel.

Republican sources say Mr. Young, Florida Republican, intends to resume the chairmanship of the Appropriations subcommittee on defense, a post he held before becoming committee chief. Defense issues are close to Mr. Young's heart. He has served on the defense panel for nearly 25 years.