Battleground states in play for Bush camp

• Article
• Comments ()
• Click-2-Listen
• Videos

By

Sen. John Kerry is trailing or tied with President Bush in many of the battleground states Democrats won in 2000 and that will likely decide the outcome of this year's elections, according to a survey of polls across the country by The Washington Times.

With six months to go before the November election, Mr. Bush is surprising political pundits and Democratic strategists in key Democratic-leaning states in the Northeast and Midwest.

For example, the president is leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two of the nation's largest industrial states that carry a combined 38 electoral votes, and he is in near-ties with Mr. Kerry in New Jersey, Oregon, Maryland and Iowa -- all states that Al Gore won in 2000

Campaign officials for the Massachusetts senator blame their candidate's erosion in the battleground states on Mr. Bush's heavy TV ad campaign and say they will turn their polling numbers around once the senator's new TV ads are fully up and running in these and other targeted states.

"After $55 million of negative attack ads, we should be trailing by double digits, and still we are in a dead heat in Michigan or up by a couple of points in other battleground states," Kerry campaign spokesman David Wade said.

National and battleground polls over the past several weeks show Mr. Kerry losing ground overall, the result of a concentrated, monthlong ad campaign by Mr. Bush's strategists, an improving economy and rising public concern about the terrorist threat, which is the president's strongest issue and his opponent's weakest, according to most polls.

State pollsters and other political strategists said last week that Mr. Kerry's decline was also because of a campaign organization that was virtually invisible in big states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Mr. Bush was campaigning heavily.

Although political analysts watch the national polls, the most important election statistics are in the biggest, electoral vote-rich states -- and it is here that Mr. Bush is gaining and in some cases overtaking the Massachusetts liberal. Among the states where Mr. Bush's numbers have improved in recent weeks:

• Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes): An April 13-19 Quinnipiac University poll of 769 registered voters showed Mr. Bush leading Mr. Kerry 46 percent to 42 percent, with 7 percent undecided. When consumer crusader Ralph Nader is included, Mr. Bush leads 45 percent to 39 percent, with 8 percent for Mr. Nader. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.

It is generally believed by campaign strategists in both camps that with Mr. Bush's electoral strength across the South and the Western plains states, Mr. Kerry could not win the presidency without carrying Pennsylvania. The state has been one of Mr. Bush's strategic targets, and last week he made his 27th trip there. Since nailing down the Democratic nomination, Mr. Kerry has visited the state only once.