Hidden drug-reimport potential

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Today, Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty host a Washington forum on importing prescription drugs from Canada.

The Canadian government's price controls on wholesale drugs make some prescription drugs artificially cheaper in Canada than in the United States, and many Americans, understandably, want to import the cheaper drugs.

Messrs. Blagojevich and Pawlenty, in particular, want the U.S. Health and Human Services Department to allow their state employees and retirees to buy such drugs. They and many others in the United States see importation from Canada as the silver bullet that will dramatically reduce prescription drug prices in the United States.

The federal government should grant permission, but the effects of that permission may surprise them. Allowing importation from Canada will not be a huge boon to Americans, at least not in short run. But it might be a small boon, by causing the Canadian government to relent from its price-control policy. Here's why.

If many people in the United States are allowed to buy from Canada, drug companies will certainly notice. They don't want their U.S. pricing policies undercut because the U.S. market, relatively free of price controls, is the most lucrative drug market in the world. There is only one way not to have their prices seriously undercut: They will choose to limit supplies to Canada.

That's not the end of the story. Even with limited shipments, Americans will still find Canadian drugs a good deal, and so, unless the Canadian or U.S. governments step in to squash importation, a big chunk of drugs meant for the Canadian market will end up here.

Consider a hypothetical drug selling for $100 here and $70 in Canada. With free trade across the border, Canadian pharmacists will charge, say, $85 to Americans, making a nice profit for themselves and compensating Americans for the extra hassle.

If enough Americans want to save $15, the price of all Canadian product will rise to $85. Canadians will then have to pay $85 or more at retail to compete with American consumers who outnumber them 9 to 1.

In fact, with enough interested Americans, the price will rise to $100 minus the cost of the extra hassle, and Canadians will see this same price. The net result? Americans will get a lot of the drugs meant for Canada but will be no better off, Canadian mail-order pharmacies will get rich, and Canadian consumers will either pay higher prices or go without.