Pension scandal at heart of LDP's troubles

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Ellis S. Krauss, professor of Japanese politics and policy-making at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California at San Diego, spoke to Washington Times reporter Takehiko Kambayashi about the House of Councilors election in Japan to be held Sunday.

Question: Of the 116 seats the Liberal Democratic Party holds in the upper house, 50 are up for grabs Sunday, and the LDP is sliding in major polls. If they can't win at least 51 seats, what should Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi do?

Answer: I think particularly the pension problem has really hurt the LDP this election. If the party doesn't win more than 51 seats, Mr. Koizumi's best strategy would be not to resign.

Everyone thinks that it is a precedent for the prime minister to resign to take responsibility for an election loss. The main example is Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto in 1998, but I'm told that was rather exceptional. Mr. Koizumi doesn't have to resign, and there is really no one else to take his place, which is his main leverage within the party.

I think probably [LDP Secretary-General] Shinzo Abe should resign to take responsibility, but then Mr. Koizumi should appoint him to the Cabinet. That would keep him in the leadership, which the LDP needs since Mr. Abe is popular, and also give him Cabinet-level experience, which he doesn't have much of, to groom him to take over from Mr. Koizumi when his term is up.

The LDP's popularity may not be terribly subject to improvement. It's always been Mr. Koizumi's popularity, which really affects the party's. Let's remember that his popularity, even at 40 to 50 percent, has always been considerably higher than that of most postwar prime ministers, whose popularity was often consistently 20 to 30 percent.

But just waiting for the pension problem to fade away from center stage would help, as would economic growth.

Mr. Koizumi has various ways to boost his popularity in the foreign policy area -- get an accounting from North Korea of the still-missing abductees [or having] North Korea dismantling their nuclear program as a result of the six-party talks, for example. And he had better pray that nothing happens to [Japan's] Self-Defense Forces in Iraq, or his popularity may really go down.

Q: What does the Democratic Party of Japan need to become a ruling party?

A: I think the DPJ's popularity is mostly a reflection of the unpopularity of the LDP over the pension issue. Also, in the 2001 House of Councilors election, Mr. Koizumi ran against the LDP, and that was appealing to the many people who wanted some change.

He can't run against his own party now, because now in many ways he is the face of the party. And that means people who want more change aren't likely to vote for the LDP. The protest [vote] and anti-LDP vote of those who want change is likely to go to the DPJ this time.

As for what the DPJ needs -- more than anything, it is to run more good candidates in local elections, and build up its "minor leagues" so that it has good, veteran politicians with appeal in local areas to run for [national] Diet seats in the near future.

Q: Mr. Koizumi has been criticized as being a "servant of [President] Bush." But if any other LDP or DPJ lawmaker became leader, would they be any different?

A: I think that Mr. Koizumi played the Bush card as long as he thought it was useful. And it was particularly useful because of the North Korea problem.

One reason I think Mr. Koizumi sent the SDF to Iraq was because he didn't want to alienate the Bush administration at a time when he needed it to handle North Korea. The other reason was to make up for the disaster of Japan's behavior in the first Gulf war.

I'm not sure he was so much a servant of Bush as being pragmatic about his need to keep his main ally happy to handle North Korea.

A DPJ administration is unlikely to be much different. All Japanese prime ministers are likely to try to keep a good relationship with the U.S. They may show a bit more independence in rejecting U.S. demands when they seem unreasonable and the public is irritated with the U.S. -- as when Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa said no to President Bill Clinton over trade matters.

But otherwise, because Japan needs the United States on security matters like North Korea, no prime minister is likely to go so far as to alienate the U.S. by being too independent.