Standing by House of Saud

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Sitting on my desk is a book titled "The Rise, Corruption and Coming Fall of the House of Saud." It was published in 1994. Long before then, pundits had been predicting the imminent collapse of the royal regime.

The carnage in Khobar will certainly excite more speculation that the dynasty of Abdul Aziz is on its last legs. That analysis, in some quarters at least, will be wishful thinking.

The Saudis have been good friends to the West, but have received little thanks for their co-operation. Liberals dislike them for being repressive, theocratic and misogynistic. American neoconservatives bitterly oppose them because of their perceived softness toward al Qaeda. Everyone -- European and Arab alike -- resents their being rich and vulgar.

It may be hard to love the Saudis, but it is in our interests to continue supporting them as they try to weather what is looking like a particularly bad patch. The "Iron Fist" crackdown last year after the attacks on Riyadh compounds that killed 43 failed to deter al Qaeda. The security forces seem incapable of preventing attacks or handling them when they occur.

Al Qaeda operatives now concentrate on soft ancillary targets connected to the oil industry, aimed at driving out foreigners, damaging production and sending shudders through the markets. The resultant effect on energy prices and the implications for the global economy will confirm the organization's view, formed after the Madrid bombings, that a relatively little violence can go a long way.

The continuing ability of al Qaeda to operate in Saudi Arabia suggests there are enough sympathizers to sustain it. The royal family is paying the price of a deal it struck a quarter-century ago when violent fundamentalists took over the mosque at Mecca. Their leader, Juhaiman al-Utaibi, accused the government of material and moral corruption and demanded its overthrow. He and his followers were captured and publicly executed.

The royal family, though, had learned a lesson. Some excesses were curbed. The Wahhabi religious establishment was flattered and indulged, and the powers of the moral police increased. At the same time, the oppression of women was intensified and a code of public puritanism imposed.

In return for these concessions, the family was left free to rule unmolested. From time to time, there have been vague promises of reform that have failed to gain any real momentum. The bloated ruling house continues to dominate public life and commerce.

This did not matter too much as long as the population remained tranquilized by its massive oil wealth. A rising population, growing unemployment and a challenged economy means the drugs are wearing off. Saudi Arabia now has a population of nearly 20 million nationals, 42 percent under age 14. Every year, 100,000 men, and increasingly women, leave university. Less than half get jobs, many in state sinecures.

Young men are bored, idle, resentful and deprived of fun. On a hot night in Jeddah, they are reduced to cruising the Corniche in their cars, trying to make eye contact with heavily chaperoned girls travelling in the next lane.