North Africa’s stumbling bloc

TUNIS, Tunisia — Efforts to form a cohesive bloc among five North African coastal nations have stumbled into obstacles that no one seems capable of removing.

They include the intractable quarrel between Algeria and Morocco over the former Spanish colony of Western Sahara, Algeria’s Islamic insurgency and Morocco’s chasm between rich and poor, exploited by the rising tide of Islamic fundamentalism.

Western analysts see Libya’s return to the international community and Tunisia’s continuing political stability as the only encouraging signs in the vast area stretching from the Libyan desert to Morocco’s Atlantic coast and known as the Maghreb — the land where the sun sets.

What has become known as the Union of Greater Maghreb comprises, from east to west, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Mauritania.

Last December, Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali invited his Maghreb colleagues and five heads of European states facing North Africa to a conference. The idea was to build political and economic bridges across the western Mediterranean, a center of the civilized world in antiquity.

The summit, known since as “the five plus five,” ended in mutual congratulations, North African hopes for easier access to European markets, and European reluctance to make commitments that would bypass the European Union on the eve of expansion.

Nonetheless, to Western diplomats, the Tunisian idea represented a step forward, even though, three months later, there is little to show besides several communiques and plans for more meetings.

While the European partners of “five plus five” — Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Malta — await the EU’s May 1 expansion from 15 to 25 members, the Maghreb has become resigned to individual quests for a better future.

Tunisian experts are generally pessimistic — not about their own country, but about what they call “the rough neighborhood” around them.

The Tunisians are particularly concerned about neighboring Algeria’s erratic turbulence, convinced that the Islamic revolt there is far from being stifled. Senior Tunisian officials are also perturbed by what one described as the erosion of influence, particularly among the young, of Morocco’s King Mohammed VI, which they fear is likely to fuel extremism.

Moammar Gadhafi’s Libya no longer worries the Tunisian government. The often-erratic strongman’s decision to abandon his nuclear program, and the multibillion-dollar compensation to the families of victims of two aircraft explosions blamed on Libyan terrorists, further pushed the door open to Libya’s full partnership with the West.

Moreover, Tunisia was comforted by what political commentator Samir Gharbi described as “the beginning of a honeymoon between Libya and the United States.”

Senior Tunisian officials view the problem of Algeria with considerable concern. They feel the Algerian military elite is ossified and corrupt, and that no significant changes are likely after the April presidential elections expected to return President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to power for another term. The role of the military in the election campaign remains murky.

Although Mr. Ben Ali, prior to his recent state visit to Washington, said in an interview that “terrorism and extremism are nothing but accidental phenomena” that Tunisia has eradicated, he warned that “the danger of terrorism transcends borders and requires diligent action and constant caution.”

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