Al Qaeda's 'second front'

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Thai security forces engaged in fierce gun battles Wednesday with Islamic militants, killing about 100 suspected youths in a series of fire fights in southern Thailand.

Worried that news of the clashes could negatively affect the country's tourism industry, Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was careful to blame local youth gangs, and not connect the clashes to al Qaeda or its affiliates. This contradicts what "many officials fear," say M.J. Gohel and Sajjan M. Gohel, terrorism analysts at Asia Pacific Foundation.

In a report last Wednesday, the London international policy assessment group said "international militant groups may be behind the attacks and are contributing to increasing tensions" in the area. If confirmed, this comport more with the belief al Qaeda and groups tied to Osama bin Laden's terror operations are increasingly active in Southeast Asia.

Reports from the region have been foggy at best, with police saying groups of youths on motorcycles launched a series of attacks on police stations. But it is clear the fighting, which the Gohel report says is "a serious escalation of the violence that began in early January," seems to indicate the groups involved are seeking automatic weapons.

Last January's attack was on a military arsenal. Tuesday's attempted raids were on police stations. The insurgents were armed only with small guns, machetes and knives, indicating they meant to obtain automatic arms from the police.

Last Tuesday's attacks were in three separate provinces, heavily dominated by Muslims -- Yala, Pattani and Songkhla. However, since the attacks were coordinated, it is very unlikely these were simply the work of errant "youths."

Analysts believe the attacks could be the work of Thai separatists. But security officials, the Gohels say, "have theorized that Jemaah Islamiyah also might have lent support to the local militant groups."

That is not to say Thai secessionist groups do not exist. Many movements such as the New Pattani United Liberation Organization, Barisan Revolusi Nasional, and the Gerakan Mujahideen Islam Pattani are active in various degrees.

Southern Thailand is predominantly Muslim. The area borders on Malaysia, itself a Muslim country. Following the recent clashes, Malaysia closed its border with Thailand.

This move, and a warning from Muslim groups that foreign tourists should avoid Thailand, will further depress tourism-generated revenues. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -- or SARS -- scare in Asia, as well as a series of terrorist attacks, in the last few years have contributed to keeping vacationing foreigners and their dollars away.