Looking beyond an ailing Arafat

AMMAN, Jordan — He may be in Paris, and there may be many questions regarding his health, but Yasser Arafat is a fighter and likely to keep the obituary writers waiting.

As news of his mysterious ailment broke and he was rushed to the Hopital d’Instruction des Armees de Percy (the Percy Army Teaching Hospital) southwest of Paris, many wondered who eventually would take over as leader of the Palestinians.

Since becoming chief of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) 35 years ago, Mr. Arafat has embodied Palestinian nationalism and the struggle for Palestinian independence.

Transformed from a civil engineer in Kuwait to the Che Guevara of the Arab world, Mr. Arafat has been a figure that Arab and world leaders could not ignore.

Among Palestinians, Mr. Arafat, also known as “Abu Ammar” — a name adopted from Ras Abu Amar, a Palestinian village west of Jerusalem depopulated and destroyed by the Israeli army in 1948 — is the most beloved, as well as hated, figure.

He has been the primary Palestinian decision maker since 1969. And although Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has sought to render the 75-year-old irrelevant and persuaded President Bush to write him off, Mr. Arafat remains the central Palestinian figure with whom they must deal.

Still, Mr. Arafat’s popularity generates resentment because of his continued hold on power. The mayhem in the Gaza Strip in the summer, as well as the Gestapo-like kidnappings and killings, and the July attack by unidentified gunmen on Nabil Amr, a reformist parliamentarian and former information minister, in the West Bank were signs of deepening cracks in the Palestinian leadership.

The events also illustrate that Mr. Arafat’s captivity for the past two years amid Israel’s reoccupation of the West Bank and Gaza has increased the appetite for power among would-be successors.

Now that he is sick and in Paris, many ask whether the Palestinian leader is on his deathbed, and who will succeed him.

On the one hand, Said Aburish, the Palestinian writer of an unflattering biography of Mr. Arafat, said the most important issue is “whether the leadership will stay in his own clique or go to the people in the West Bank and Gaza.”

Initial reports said Mr. Arafat put together a committee made up of Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia (also known as Abu Ala), former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (also called Abu Mazen) and Salim Zanun, a top PLO official, to take over if he dies.

Some observers have long contended that Mohammed Dahlan, a former internal-security chief in Mr. Arafat’s Fatah movement and a favorite of Israel and the United States, may assume some kind of role in a post-Arafat environment.

But “this is all talk,” said Mustafa Barghouti, secretary of the Palestinian National Initiative, a democratic opposition movement co-founded by the now-deceased Edward Said and other prominent figures.

“There is no such thing as a [transition] committee. What is happening is the application of the law, which means Abu Mazen as secretary of the PLO Executive Committee is running the meetings of the committee, and Abu Ala as prime minister is running the government,” said Mr. Barghouti, adding: “There is no transition of power because Arafat is not incapacitated yet.”

A senior Palestinian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, also denied that such a committee had been formed. “All those responsible and the institutions are in place, so there is nothing that needs to be created. Everything should fall in place if something happens, God forbid,” the official said.

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