GOP expected to hold House; Senate at stake

Republicans are expected to hold on to their House majority tomorrow, but the Senate is turning into a nail-biter, with nine races in play that could upset the party’s precarious hold on power.

As the congressional elections enter their final hours, control of the Senate — where Republicans have a 51-48 seat majority, with one Democrat-leaning independent — appears to be up for grabs.

Eleven governorships also are at stake tomorrow, five held by Republicans and six by Democrats, that could expand the Republicans’ 28-seat statehouse majority by a seat or two.

Senate Republican seats are in danger of being taken over by the Democrats in Illinois, Alaska and Colorado, while four of five Southern Democrat open seats are at risk and Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle is running behind in some polls against Republican former Rep. John Thune. Two other Republican seats in Kentucky and Oklahoma also look vulnerable.

“We continue to believe that it is easier for the Republicans to get to 51 seats than it is for the Democrats,” veteran elections analyst Stuart Rothenberg told his newsletter subscribers over the weekend. “But the Senate remains a very interesting and unpredictable battleground.

“Anything from a Democratic gain of a seat or two to a GOP gain of two or three seems possible. The most likely scenario is continued Republican control of the Senate — and possibly a gain of a seat for the party,” he said.

A pickup of two or three Republicans would give President Bush a stronger majority on Capitol Hill to get his legislative agenda passed, should he win re-election, but it would pose a significant, if not insurmountable, obstacle if Sen. John Kerry becomes president. A Democratic takeover, on the other hand, would block the Bush agenda for at least the next two years.

House: Few seats in play

In the House races, veteran congressional election analysts generally agree there are not enough competitive contests for the Democrats to get the 218-seat majority needed to take back the chamber they lost in 1994 after a 40-year reign. Republicans rule with a 227-205 majority, with one independent and two vacancies.

While several senior Republicans are in trouble, “few seats are in play, and the party’s House majority does not appear to be at risk,” Mr. Rothenberg said in his latest report on House races.

All 435 congressional seats are up for election, but 405 (213 Republicans and 192 Democrats) are considered safe or favored to win their elections. Most of the rest are competitive or tilting Republican, with eight races clear tossups.

The fate of five Democratic lawmakers in Texas, as a result of a redistricting plan passed by the Republican-controlled state Legislature and engineered by House Republican Leader Tom DeLay of Texas, was the most far-reaching factor in the House elections battle.

It now appears likely that four of the five Democrats who had their districts redrawn by Republican map makers will be defeated, dramatically changing the political makeup of the Texas delegation. Overall, Texas Republicans could add as many as six seats to their House lineup.

Among the five redistricted Democrats, Reps. Charles W. Stenholm, Max Sandlin and Nick Lampson were running well behind their Republican opponents by at least 10 percentage points. Rep. Martin Frost also was struggling against Republican Rep. Pete Sessions. Only seven-term Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards had a strong lead over challenger Arlene Wohlgemuth.

Senate: Shift of power?

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