‘Chance for life’ in Mideast peace talks

Policy-makers see an opportunity for renewed progress toward peace in the Middle East after Yasser Arafat’s death, but analysts warned yesterday that it will be hard for any new leader to accept a less generous deal than what Mr. Arafat rejected.

The biggest unknown is what to expect from the Islamist movement Hamas, which is heavily entrenched in the Palestinian territories and long has pursued its agenda independent of Mr. Arafat.

One international security official in the region said the potential existed for civil war among the Palestinians, but added that much depended “on the conviction” of the new Palestinian leadership.

Mr. Arafat, the terrorist-turned-president who became the symbol of the Palestinian cause, died yesterday at 75 after days of lying comatose in a Paris hospital.

“We wonder if his death will give a chance for life — a renewal of a shattered partnership after four years of terror and violence,” said David Makovsky, director of the Middle East Peace Process project at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

But, he cautioned, “I think we should avoid ‘all-or-nothing’ traps, namely to believe we are going to solve this 100-year conflict tomorrow morning.”

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said yesterday that Mr. Arafat’s death would not affect his country’s plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.

But, he said, “The latest events might be a historic turning point.”

Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom went further, saying, “We are at the dawn of a new era in the Middle East — an era which carries the possibility and the hope — of real change for the better. We hope that the end of the Arafat era will also be the end of the era of terror.”

But Israel cannot be considered a bystander when it comes to ensuring that there is not just a smooth transition of power, but that there is a larger environment conducive to a pragmatic leadership, said Scott Lasensky, a Middle East expert at United States Institute for Peace.

“This leadership struggle is not taking place in a vacuum. The fate of the Palestinian national movement lies first and foremost with the Palestinians, but Israel is a close second and the U.S. a very close third,” Mr. Lasensky said.

Carefully phrased statements from the Bush administration called Mr. Arafat’s death a “significant moment” in Palestinian history but focused on the future of the region.

Mr. Bush, the first U.S. president to call for a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution, repeatedly has cited a need for new Palestinian leadership before there could be progress on Middle East peace.

But he offered no tribute to the late leader in a brief statement after the death announcement from Paris, saying simply, “We express our condolences to the Palestinian people.”

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell was more conciliatory, saying, “We know that, in the eyes of the Palestinian people, Arafat embodied their hopes and dreams for the achievement of an independent Palestinian state.”

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