Bush, Kerry vie for pivotal states

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President Bush and Sen. John Kerry traded fire yesterday in Florida and Ohio, respectively, as the presidential race entered its final two weeks with the focus on a shrinking number of dead-even battleground states.

And one or two of them -- such as Florida or Ohio -- could determine whether Mr. Bush or Mr. Kerry wins.

There are as many scenarios for the outcome of this year's down-to-the-wire election as there are analysts. But some election trackers and pollsters believe the contest will be decided in three pivotal states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

"In that scenario, Kerry has to win Pennsylvania, Bush has to win Florida, and Ohio will decide which way it goes," said Clay Richards, vice president for the Quinnipiac College Poll.

The election battle can be reduced to nine or so states that remain true tossups. Multiple mathematical combinations lead to Mr. Bush or Mr. Kerry reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the election.

Both candidates yesterday tried to drive home their messages.

"We're losing good jobs," Mr. Kerry said during a rally in Xenia, Ohio, in which he dwelled on the outsourcing of American jobs. "Consumer confidence in America is plunging downwards as people have more and more doubts about the economy. Doubts are one of the things a president is elected to deal with."

Mr. Bush, campaigning in Daytona Beach, Fla., hounded the Massachusetts Democrat for his voting record on the war in Iraq.

"At a time of great threat to this country, at a time of great challenge in the world, the commander in chief must stand on principle, not on the shifting sands of political convenience," Mr. Bush said.

Most campaign analysts have whittled the essential winning list of states down to Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio in the Midwest, Florida in the South, New Mexico in the Southwest and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine in the Northeast. Together these states deliver a total of 108 electoral votes.