Tight races may erase gains of redistricting

DALLAS - The redistricting plan adopted this year by the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature was expected to help elect a half-dozen more Republicans to the U.S. House this fall, but strongly contested races have put the exact number of gains in question.

Political observers say the Republican Party may gain only two or three seats, but with the 32-seat Texas delegation to the House split evenly, even a few wins would vault Republicans to the majority for the first time in the state’s history.

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court tossed back the redistricting case, saying a three-judge federal panel in Texas should reconsider its decision, which approved the Republican remapping. The decision will not affect the election next week, and few in Texas expect the appeals court to overturn its own decision.

The new district lines, prompted in great part by the personal intervention of U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Sugar Land, Texas, were designed to assure the re-election of most Republican incumbents and make it arduous for more liberal congressmen to survive.

As a result, Democratic incumbents Max Sandlin of Marshall, Chet Edwards of Waco, Nick Lampson of Beaumont, Lloyd Doggett of Austin and Charles W. Stenholm of Abilene found themselves in districts where Republican voters were the majority.

And then there’s Martin Frost.

The 13-term veteran was at the top of the Republican hit list. He said he couldn’t win because of the extent to which the new map carved up his District 24.

Rather than retire, Mr. Frost decided to oppose Pete Sessions, the Republican incumbent in District 32 (north Dallas).

Mr. Frost has tried to project himself as a moderate a man who voted with President Bush on various key issues (homeland security, in particular). Mr. Sessions, meanwhile, has told small-business owners that he will ensure they are not “taxed to death.”

“[Frost] is so well-known. I think that is the main thing here. And he never, ever stops working,” said Allan Saxe, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington.

Cal Jillson, Southern Methodist University political science professor, said the race is closer than he had anticipated.

“And I know it’s much closer that Pete Sessions ever thought it would be or Tom DeLay expected when he re-did these districts,” Mr. Jillson said.

Some of the other targeted Democrats are leading or close.

In District 1, four-term incumbent Mr. Sandlin is leading in several polls against Republican Louie Gohmert of Tyler.

Mr. Sandlin is running as an independent and not as a Kerry-Edwards Democrat.

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