'Who is a Turk?'

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Facing public opinion polls that show Americans' view of the Iraq war at a new low, President Bush delivered a speech last week to rally support and lay out the stakes of the mission. He didn't offer any substantial "guarantee" of victory against the insurgency, but Democrats aren't exactly solving the problem either.

Rep. John Murtha, Pennsylvania Democrat, a decorated Vietnam veteran, with the backing of House Minority leader Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, suggested the immediate redeployment of U.S. forces, and the creation of a rapid-reaction force to drop into Iraq to contain flare-ups. While there remains the question of how Democrats define "victory" in Iraq, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger rightly warned, "I think to look at withdrawal from Iraq strictly in terms of our own election cycle could lead to a disaster." Indeed, it is crucial to acknowledge the challenges ahead, and here is where Turkey comes back into the picture.

Sooner or later, the United States will withdraw large numbers of its troops from Iraq, but some U.S. military presence will definitely remain there for many years to come. It's safe to speculate that a good number of the remaining troops will be based in Northern Iraq — statistically, the area where U.S. troops have suffered few casualties, and the place where they will continue to observe and protect the democratic process in Iraq. Yet if necessary precautions are not taken, this exit strategy will most likely bring on a "disaster" in U.S.?Turkey relations that will be so much worse than the 2003 decision by the Turkish parliament not to give U.S. troops a northern front to enter Iraq.

Since the first Gulf War, Kurds in Northern Iraq have built their autonomous region, making its economy a success. Investments have poured into this part of Iraq, as opposed to the Shi'ite parts of the country. According to the exit strategy, the U.S. military presence will inevitably help Northern Iraq's economy, create more job opportunities and open the way to new investment when security is established. And that will be Turkey's challenge. Although there are much poorer towns and cities in the Black Sea and Aegean regions, the people did not call for arms against the state. Kurds did, because they demand the right to "self-determination."

Since Iraq began taking its baby steps toward democracy, Kurds in Turkey began to look up to Northern Iraq rather than follow the dream to become part of the European Union. When a bomb exploded in a bookstore in Semdinli, Hakkari, hundreds rallied against the state, supporting PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and, according to some accounts, burning the Turkish flag in front of the police station.

The question remains how Turkey will win the hearts and minds of its Kurdish citizens, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has opened a public debate asking, "Who is a Turk?" It's unclear what purpose debates like this serve at this time, and whether they're the right way to move forward when there's the possibility that either an Iraqi Kurdistan could prosper more than the Kurdish areas in the southeastern and eastern parts of Turkey, or Iraqi Kurds could call for their own independence.

Meanwhile, Turkey's Justice and Development Party is a K Street-like flurry of activity. Some lawmakers work like lobbyists, either representing Kurdish demands, acknowledging their right to self-determination, or some are still battling over allowing women to appear in public places with headscarves. In the midst of this, Turkey is still fighting its battle over Kemalists vs. Islamists. However, the country should prioritize how to reach out to its Kurdish people and unite everyone behind the flag. Otherwise, the country is being pulled in opposite directions between the EU and Northern Iraq.

If Turkey does not find a solution to the dilemma within its borders, it could break apart sooner or later.

So while the United States considers its exit from Iraq, Turkey must address its situation with the Kurds — because the pullout will also determine whether Turkey will retain its borders. Turkey's EU membership will guarantee a stronger democracy, human rights, rule of law and a better economy, which will help keep Turkey's Kurds in the fold. Under these circumstances, PKK is no longer the primary threat to Turkey's integrity. The Kurdish nationalists shifted their focus from the EU membership toward what the United States can do for them — delivering them the right to "self-determination," hopefully ending with the announcement of their dream homeland. If this is not what the United States desires, it also needs to work to keep the Iraqi Kurds from encouraging Kurds in other countries to join their journey. Otherwise, borders will change again, and the cost to the U.S. security will likely be high.

If Turkey is allowed to have it all — both the EU membership and a guarantee of its territorial integrity — the United States will be able to hold onto it when challenged by Syria and Iran. If not, the exit strategy could be a disaster for the region.

Tulin Daloglu is the Washington correspondent and columnist for Turkey's Star TV and newspaper. A former BBC reporter, she writes occasionally for The Washington Times.