The Iranian nuclear threat

Make no mistake about it: Friday night’s suicide bombing in Tel Aviv, in which four Israelis were killed, serves as a warning about the future in a world in which Iran has nuclear weapons. Evidence thus far suggests that Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah — both of which have been working with Iran and Syria to destroy any possibility of an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement — most likely were behind the bombing. Were Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, it would substantially increase its ability to deter pre-emptive or retaliatory strikes against the terrorist infrastructure behind such attacks.

That’s why President Bush’s discussions of the subject last week with European leaders and with Russian President Vladimir Putin were so important. But it is unclear right now precisely what these leaders are prepared to do in order to stop Tehran from acquiring atomic weapons, up to and including the use of military force.

On Tuesday, Mr. Bush stated: “This notion that the United States is getting ready to attack Iran is simply ridiculous.” But he immediately added: “And having said that, all options are on the table.” Then, on Wednesday, Mr. Bush said that “diplomacy is just beginning. Iran is not Iraq.” But the president also disagreed with those who say “there needs to be movement on both sides,” insisting that the onus should instead be on Iran.

Mr. Bush also emphasized that he and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder agree as to their ultimate goal: a nuclear-free Iran. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said the two leaders held discussions about whether “a mix of carrots and sticks” should be used to modify Tehran’s behavior. And Mr. Bush said that Washington supports talks between the EU 3 — Britain, France and Germany— and Iran. But thus far, these discussions, which have been going on for well over a year, have failed to budge the Iranians.

Mr. Bush did win assurances from Russian President Vladimir Putin that Moscow will not sell fuel for Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor absent agreement that all spent fuel used in the facility will be returned to Russia for final disposal. Moscow and Tehran wasted no time in signing an agreement yesterday for the startup of the Bushehr reactor. Aside from giving some vague assurances that the Bushehr deal conforms to international regulations, the agreement remains shrouded in mystery. The bottom line is Iran’s nuclear-weapons efforts appear to be moving forward, and that no one seems to have come up with a workable plan to stop them.