Pakistan sees Iran meddling in area

A diplomatic spat in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Baluchistan may lead to a bitter confrontation between two Islamic nations, Pakistan and Iran, and adversely affect U.S. efforts to fight the al Qaeda terror network in neighboring Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s possession of nuclear weapons and Iran’s nuclear ambitions makes the situation even more precarious. Last week, Baluchistan’s chief minister, Jam Mohammed Yusuf, blamed Iran for fomenting trouble in his province. But on the same day officials in the federal capital, Islamabad, denied any Iranian involvement in Baluchistan.

“Outside forces … maybe Iran, are involved,” Mr. Yusuf told Pakistan’s private ARY Television when asked about foreign involvement in Baluchistan. This was the first time a senior Pakistani official had directly blamed Iran for stirring trouble inside Pakistan. In the past, India usually has been blamed for such troubles.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf last month also blamed “outside forces” for exploiting the situation in Baluchistan, after three days of fighting between security forces and rebels killed at least four soldiers.

“There are possibilities. Without proof, we cannot accuse anyone. But yes, we know funds and weapons come from outside and activity against Pakistan is encouraged,” he told the private network Geo TV.

Without naming them, Gen. Musharraf said the same powers were opposed to the construction of the Gwadar port in Baluchistan, which is being built with Chinese help to turn it into a hub of trade connecting Pakistan to Afghanistan and other Central Asian nations.

Privately, Pakistani officials complain that Iran is opposed to the construction of the port because Iranians want their ports to be used for this potentially lucrative trade route.

Baluchistan is Pakistan’s largest province, inhabited by Pashtun and Baluchi tribesmen who have strong ethnic and religious ties to people in Afghanistan. Many Taliban and al Qaeda suspects fled to Baluchistan when U.S. forces defeated the hard-line Taliban regime in Afghanistan in December 2001. Baluchistan also borders the Afghan province of Kandahar, where the Taliban movement was born and where religious groups still have a considerable influence.

“Instability in Baluchistan will definitely benefit the Taliban and al Qaeda movements,” said Rashid Khalid, who teaches strategic studies at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. Mr. Khalid contends that if the Pakistani military loses its grip on Baluchistan, there will be no way to check religious militants who have strong pockets inside the province.

“It will weaken Islamabad’s control, allowing Taliban and al Qaeda suspects to move freely across this large province. They can simply conduct raids in Afghanistan and flee to Baluchistan to hide among local tribes,” he said.

Mr. Khalid said one way to stop this from happening would be direct U.S. intervention, but with its forces stretched thin in Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States may not want to undertake another major responsibility in the region.

Baluchistan also is strategically important because of its long coastline, which offers the closest warm-water ports to landlocked Central Asian states of the former Soviet Union, which are rich in natural resources.

In his ARY Television interview, Mr. Yusuf indicated that Baluchistan’s strategic importance, particularly in the war against al Qaeda, interested “outside powers” in the province.

A senior military official in Islamabad, who did not want to be identified, said Iran, which increasingly is worried about being squeezed by U.S. forces based in Iraq and Afghanistan, “sees Baluchistan as a place where it can fight back [against] U.S. influence in the region and hope to create some problems for Washington.”

But it is not just Iran’s desire to resist U.S. influence in the region that appears to have encouraged its interest in Baluchistan. A rapid deterioration in relations with Pakistan also is a factor.

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