Conventional war with India seen turning nuclear

No conventional war between India and Pakistan will remain limited for long — it would gradually lead to a full-scale war and ultimately to a nuclear conflict, warns a study by a Pakistani defense official.

The study, presented recently at a Washington think tank, looks at various scenarios that could lead to all-out war between the two South Asian neighbors, which conducted a series of nuclear tests in May 1998 and possess nuclear-capable missiles.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since their independence from Britain in 1947 and are still engaged in a 57-year-old conflict in the Himalayan valley of Kashmir, over which two of the three wars were fought.

Most of the potential war scenarios discussed in this study also focus on Kashmir, where most international observers believe even a small conflict could escalate into a bigger one.

Recently, India and Pakistan agreed to resolve their differences through dialogue and both have taken steps to lessen tensions.

The study by the Pakistani defense official envisages potential Pakistani responses to various proposals being discussed in Indian defense circles for dealing with the Kashmir insurgency, which India blames on Pakistan-backed militants.

The author, who did not want to be identified, argues that recently, India has put forward the idea of a limited conventional war aimed at achieving a specific political objective, such as putting down the uprising in Kashmir.

But the author warns that what India may see as “a limited conventional war” may not be acceptable to Pakistan. “Similarly, what India defines as ‘a limited political perspective’ may have a different implication for Pakistan,” he adds.

The author points out that most Western analysts and scholars are not comfortable with India’s limited-war doctrine, and they also believe that “a limited war between India and Pakistan cannot remain limited for long.”

Comparing nuclear policies of the two countries, the author says the central theme of Pakistan’s nuclear policy guidelines is to act in a responsible manner and to exercise restraint in the conduct of its deterrence policy. Pakistan, he said, also wants to ensure that its nuclear capability does not pose any threat to nonnuclear states in the region.

“Pakistan’s nuclear capability is very clearly for deterrence of aggression and defense of its sovereignty,” the author said.

India’s declared nuclear doctrine, he said, is based on “no first use of nuclear weapons.” India, however, retains the option of using nuclear weapons in retaliation against a nuclear, biological or chemical attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere.

“India’s doctrine contains an inbuilt offensive design. The most dangerous aspect of this policy is that it keeps the option open for a conventional war against Pakistan,” the author contends.

Asked why Pakistan resorted to a limited conventional war in Kargil in 1999, the author said Kargil is part of Siachen sector where limited battles have continued since 1984. Kargil, he said, was a continuation of the same ongoing skirmishes between India and Pakistan.

He explained various options India may exercise for launching a limited conventional war against Pakistan. These include:

Story Continues →