Great expectations in Iraq

Iraqis headed to the polls today in an election that shows how far the country has come since the U.S.-led invasion two years ago — and how far it still has to go.

Results for the new 275-seat National Assembly are not expected for at least another week. But a cruder judgment on the legitimacy of the process — and on the effects of a vicious terrorist campaign to intimidate candidates and voters — could be delivered by the time the polls close.

Bush administration officials, buoyed by a recent poll showing an overwhelming number of Iraqis say they want to vote, are increasingly confident that the vote will exceed the admittedly low international expectations for the balloting.

President Bush last week predicted the vote will be remembered as “a grand moment in Iraqi history.”

Conceding that Iraq’s democracy still faces grave challenges and deadly opposition, Mr. Bush insisted that “the fact they’re voting in itself is a success.”

U.S. officials caution that today’s vote is only the first step in a difficult process in which Iraq’s warring ethnic and religious blocs must form a government, elect a president, draft and win ratification of a new constitution and hold elections for a permanent parliament — all by the end of December.

The election also presents a key test of strength for terrorist groups, which have vowed to disrupt the election and threatened to kill anyone who dares to vote.

Attacks on election officials, U.S. and Iraqi security forces and other election-related targets have intensified in recent days. Last night, a rocket hit the U.S. Embassy inside the green zone, killing two Americans and injuring four others. At least 17 others, including an American soldier, were killed in separate attacks across the country yesterday in a relatively calm day before the election.

The Islamic Army In Iraq, a Sunni terrorist group, recently posted a warning on its Internet site urging new attacks.

“It is no secret that the enemies of Allah — the Americans and their hypocrite, apostate allies — are trying to make the infidel elections a success,” the statement said. “Under these circumstances, the Islamic Army of Iraq has ordered all the forces it commands to intensify their attacks as much as possible.”

For all the massive political, logistical and security problems plaguing the vote, the uncertainty over the outcome is nevertheless a massive shift from the dictatorial days of ousted strongman Saddam Hussein.

“This is an election whose outcome is impossible to predict,” said a Baghdad-based senior State Department official, briefing reporters on the vote. “I think that’s one of the delightful aspects of it.”

“Everyone knows about the problems, the Iraqis most of all,” said John Anelli, deputy director of Iraqi programs in Baghdad for the Washington-based International Republican Institute (IRI), which has done the most extensive polling of the Iraqi electorate.

“But there’s overwhelming desire for normality, and our surveys show there really is reason to be hopeful,” he said.

Massive question marks hang over today’s vote, and over the political jockeying that will follow.

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