Down to two and up to Bud

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"This is very difficult to handicap."

Those are the words of someone with a direct stake in handicapping the competition for ownership of the Washington Nationals.

"It depends on who you talk to and what time of day you talk to them. Bud can change his mind 10 more times before he makes a final decision."

Those are the words of someone who knows Cadillac Bud Selig well enough to know the commissioner's decision-making process.

But after rounding up the usual suspects in an exercise that has gone on way too long, the consensus is the selection is down to two groups. But there is no consensus over which two those are.

Some believe it is down to the Washington Baseball Club and the Lerner family-Stan Kasten merger. But many others think it is between the Lerner-Kasten group and Jeff Smulyan.

Since Lerner-Kasten is a finalist in both scenarios, it would appear to be the choice.

"Bud is very comfortable with the Lerners," said one baseball insider familiar with the process.

But he also is comfortable with Smulyan. And, perhaps just as important, his lieutenant, Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, considers Smulyan a close friend.

That's why, until Cadillac Bud issues the final decree about the Nationals' new owner, it will be difficult to believe it won't be Smulyan, the Indianapolis radio mogul and former owner of the Seattle Mariners.