Vietnam’s new found hopes

The top political leadership of Vietnam just changed. A new team of economic reformers emerged; but their ability to move Vietnam toward a more open and democratic future remains uncertain. The question, as we celebrate Independence Day in America, is this: can democratic governments like the U.S. influence Vietnam toward more freedom and democracy?

Last week in Vietnam, Nguyen Tan Dung was chosen by the communist ruling body as Vietnam’s youngest post-war prime minister, arguably the most significant leadership position in the government. Nguyen Minh Triet, the Communist Party head in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC, formerly Saigon), was chosen as Vietnam’s new president, a more ceremonial position. Nguyen Phu Trong was named as new chairman of the national assembly.

The leaders named nine new cabinet members, who were confirmed by the national assembly, including two deputy premiers and the foreign, defense and finance ministers.

Although the communist party has a firm grip on politics in Vietnam, this sweeping political change marked a watershed. From the end of the war in Vietnam in 1975, hard-line communist leadership made that country a backward, repressed, economically depressed failure: the Cuba, or worse, of Southeast Asia. All media in Vietnam is controlled by the Communist Party and the people have no say in their leadership.

Recently, more enlightened thinking has made Vietnam an emerging economic force; not a lion but perhaps an economic tiger cub.

For the future of trade with the U.S and the economy of Vietnam, the news of the new leadership gives great promise. Both Mr. Dung and Mr. Nguyen are economic reformers with close ties to the economic engine of the nation: Ho Chi Minh City.

Mr. Dung, for example, had lunch with Bill Gates when the Microsoft leader visited Vietnam last April. Business leaders we spoke to generally applauded the leadership changes.

In the past six years, the Vietnamese economy has grown at an inflation-adjusted average of 7.4 percent. This year, the government expects GDP to grow by 8.5 percent. This economic surge is helping to lift many from poverty and is leading to general improvements in infrastructure and quality of life.

The new leaders have also taken an active role in eliminating corruption and organized crime: decades-long blights on the communist system in Vietnam.

The new leaders will undoubtedly forge the future direction of Vietnam, according to professor Carlyle Thayer of the Australian Defense Force Academy.

“What is this direction?” Mr. Thayer asked us rhetorically. “Vietnam will attempt to fully integrate with the world economy through membership in the World Trade Organization. Vietnam will endeavor to maintain high growth rates over a decade-and-a-half to achieve the objective of becoming a modern and industrial country.”

But even though the economic intentions of these new leaders seem clear, their political backbone remains untested and vague. One experienced diplomat who asked not to be named told us, “Dung is an enigma. He is hard to put a finger on, ideologically.”

Why should the United States care about the political future of Vietnam? Precisely because, as President Bush has asserted time and again, “Democracies rarely wage war on other democracies.”

While Vietnam poses no military threat to anyone, it is important to note that democratic governments tend to cherish freedom, protect their economic growth at almost any cost, resist knowingly harboring terrorists, and generally enforce human rights. Democracy not only makes people free but it also generally makes them more wealthy and improves their quality of life.

The past regime in Vietnam under Prime Minister Phan Van Khai actively persecuted the minority population, the Hmong, in ugly purges that left thousands dead and others forced to migrate away from their homeland. Mr. Khai also supported religious persecution that left dozens of clerics jailed for years on end without hope or recourse.

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