Diplomacy and spin

Rule 1 in diplomatic negotiations between belligerents is no preconditions. Unless, of course, unconditional surrender, a la Nazi Germany and imperialist Japan, is the objective.

Bogged down in an insurgency that has spawned bloody anarchy, the U.S. is in no position to squeeze Iran into giving up its nuclear ambitions. The more the U.S. squeezes Iran with punitive diplomatic, financial and economic measures, the more Iran will squeeze the United States in Iraq, where it has tremendous leverage. Iran is even getting a powerful assist from Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki — and the Pentagon.

The alleged killing in cold blood of 24 Iraqi civilians by a squad of U.S. Marines was splashed all over the now free Iraqi print and electronic media. Mr. al-Maliki hinted this could bring his own government to a boil and lead to a demand the U.S. pull its troops out of Iraq. But he didn’t add his own U.S.-trained Iraqi troops were ready to replace the Americans. Which, of course, they’re not.

Tehran has already done a pretty good job of “agitprop” in Basra, Iraq’s second-largest city in the heart of Shi’ite Iraq. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, a separate military organization from the Defense Ministry, has equipped and funded two Shi’ite militia that do not respond to any commands from the new Iraqi government in Baghdad. The nascent Iraqi democracy appears to be at the tipping point of a lawless land that now clearly points to a strongman solution if such a political animal were available.

The military option, which President Bush and his Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice say is on the table, cannot be exercised if Iran’s massive retaliatory capabilities have been honestly assessed. Air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and the mullahocracy would order up a Vietnam II scenario for the U.S. presence in Iraq.

“Fact, Fallacy, and an Overall Grade of ‘F’ is the description given by Anthony H. Cordesman of the Defense Department’s latest quarterly report to Congress on “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq.” The Center for Strategic and International Studies senior strategic thinker, long the most prescient on the Iraq crisis, says the DOD report is “deeply flawed.” Mr.Cordesman adds, “It does more than simply spin the situation to provide false assurances. It makes basic analytical and statistical mistakes, fails to define key terms, provides undefined and unverifiable survey information, and deals with key issues by omission.” Wow. And this in the world’s greatest democracy.

Other Cordesman zingers:

• “The economic analysis is flawed to the point of absurdity.”

c “A fundamentally false picture of the political situation in Iraq, and of the difficulties ahead. It does not prepare the Congress or the American people for the years of effort that will be needed even under ‘best case’ conditions and the risk of far more serious forms of civil conflict.”

c “Very real progress in the development of Iraqi regular forces is exaggerated and the need for major continued support and aid is largely omitted.”

c ‘The basic problems in the police, justice system, and governance that represented a major threat and risk are omitted to the point where the analysis is so distorted as to be useless.”

The U.S. cannot afford to repeat its Vietnam mistakes, says Mr. Cordesman, but “lies by omission and spin” are taking America down the same road. The latest Quarterly report is both “dishonest and incompetent, and is a serious indictment of the professional integrity and competence of every individual and agency involved in drafting it.”

The U.S. says it will sit down at the same table with its EU3 partners and Iran, but not until Tehran agrees to abandon the nuclear option. That won’t happen until the cows come home. Iran is not about to throw 19 years of clandestine work out the minaret.

What air strikes would almost certainly trigger is a chain of events that would engulf the entire Middle East in unprecedented turmoil. And if that doesn’t faze the hawks, oil at 200 bucks a barrel almost certainly will. Unless, of course, they can look upon gas at $10 a gallon with equanimity.

Washington, frequently described as 10 square miles surrounded by reality, has both short- and long-term memory problems. If most Americans can recall how ABC’s “Nightline” and Ted Koppel became legends with their gripping coverage of the 444-day, 1979-80 hostage crisis, and the botched attempt to rescue 53 U.S. diplomatic personnel, few remember Tehran’s role in the killing of 241 U.S. Marines in a suicide truck bomb attack in Beirut Oct. 23, 1983.

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