Battle for the Hill reaches overdrive

The headlong race for control of the Congress shifted into political overdrive today, with Democrats leading in enough contests to win back the House and score big gains in the Senate.

With 435 House seats, 33 Senate seats and 36 governorships at stake, the two major parties were pouring tens of millions of dollars into a final blitz of TV ads in an election that — which-ever side wins — is expected to result in a narrowly divided Congress for the next two years.

In what has become a bleak political year for Republicans — who have been pummeled by the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal, the congressional page scandal, increasing U.S. casualties in Iraq and voter dissatisfaction with the economy — party officials in key battleground states acknowledged they were worried about the results and voter turnout levels for Tuesday.

“I worry about the intensity factor. It is up in the 80s for the Democrats, but for Republicans it was down around the 40s this summer and has since moved into the high 70s,” Ohio Republican Chairman Bob Bennett said.

“The war in Iraq is the big issue with voters this year, but the lobbying scandals and [Ohio Gov.] Bob Taft’s ethical liabilities, the page scandal, all those things contribute to the problems in Ohio that makes our job more difficult,” he said.

Another Midwestern Republican chairman, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said dissatisfaction among Republican voters with Congress and its increased spending levels is high.

“People say they got into pork barrel spending and forgot why they are there. I don’t know how many told me we’re spending like drunken sailors,” the official said.

The House

These complaints echoed those of other party leaders in states where the latest polls showed Democrats leading in at least 15 Republican-held congressional districts — enough to recapture the House — and in 20 to 25 or more House races all told, according to other polling counts tabulated by the Real Clear Politics election news Web site.

“Our race-by-race analysis for the fight for control of the House of Representatives continues to show Democrats adding more than the 15 seats they need to gain control of the House,” elections analyst Stuart Rothenberg said in his latest campaign watch newsletter.

However, Republican leaders and senior campaign strategists think they will retain control of both houses by slim margins.

White House political strategist Karl Rove has conceded that Democrats will make gains in the House but will fall short of the 15 needed to get them to a majority of 218. Republican strategists, pointing to a tightening in a number of races in the past few weeks, think the party’s superior voter turnout operation in strongly Republican districts will be enough to tip close races into the party’s column.

But Mr. Rothenberg’s survey of tossup races “currently show 12 Republican-held districts that are at least tilting Democratic, bringing Democrats just three seats short of 218, and a majority, in the House,” he told his political newsletter clients last week.

“The good news for Republicans is that two [open] seats previously tilting Democratic have moved back into the tossup category,” Mr. Rothenberg said. They are the seats held by former Rep. Mark Foley of Florida, who resigned after inappropriate e-mails he sent to male congressional pages became public, and former Rep. Tom DeLay of Texas, who left office in the wake of money-laundering charges. Substitute candidates now appear to have a “realistic chance” of holding on to both seats, he said.

“That leaves Democrats needing to win just a handful of the large number of GOP seats in play to take the House,” Mr. Rothenberg added.

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