Iraq panel inks draft report

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The Iraq Study Group met yesterday at an undisclosed location to discuss its first draft report that calls for increased diplomatic engagement in the region and new military moves to rescue Iraq from a descent into civil war.

The panel's co-chairmen, James A. Baker III, secretary of state in the first Bush administration, and former Rep. Lee H. Hamilton, Indiana Democrat, finished work on the draft during the weekend. It contains an assessment of where violence-racked Iraq stands more than three years after the U.S. ousted Saddam Hussein.

It also includes a list of recommendations on diplomatic and military fronts. A final report to President Bush is expected next month.

Mr. Baker is said to be pushing a recommendation for the Bush administration to engage in direct talks with Syria and Iran, two U.S.-designated state sponsors of terrorism who are supporting various insurgencies and terrorist attacks in Iraq.

David Satterfield, the State Department's top adviser on Iraq, told Congress earlier this month that the administration is willing to talk with Tehran but not Damascus. Mr. Satterfield listed several of Syria's pro-terrorism policies, such as backing Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Mr. Hamilton told The Washington Times last week that the first draft is a working document that can be changed by the 10-member panel created by Congress.

Defense sources said it will be difficult for the group of five Democrats and five Republicans, all former officeholders, to reach a unanimous report if it recommends a significant shift away from Mr. Bush's policy of no specific timetable for removing U.S. troops, which now number close to 150,000.

The Pentagon is conducting its own extensive review, from which Gen. Peter Pace, Joint Chiefs chairman, will make recommendations to the president. Pentagon officials say they want Mr. Bush to have options that include input from generals.

Army Gen. John Abizaid, the top commander in the region, has told Congress that he does not want a troop increase or a withdrawal timetable. He said a troop increase would send the wrong signal that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have more time to prepare to take over counterinsurgency missions.

Pentagon officials say it is doubtful Gen. Pace would overrule Gen. Abizaid.

U.S. soldiers in Iraq are caught between killing sprees of Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims, especially in greater Baghdad, where ramped-up security operations during the past two months did not meet their objectives, the command acknowledged.

Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, issued a paper yesterday on Sunni extremists' desire for a civil war and for a much larger religious struggle in the region.

"The attackers have several advantages," Mr. Cordesman said. "They are hitting at very soft civilian targets; they only need very limited numbers of attackers and can use car bombs or suicide bombs that are very hard to detect and defend against."

He warned against talk of a quick U.S. pullout.

"It is also clear that threatening to leave is not going to help," he said. "Iraqis need to see positive measures towards security, conciliation and economic aid."