Banner year for Ulster

It is a quiet milestone for Northern Ireland, but a significant one. The British army’s 38-year Operation Banner ended Tuesday with little fanfare, virtually invisible for years and now officially history, as if to suggest that reconciliation is here once and for all. This is part of a larger picture of good news for Northern Ireland, where a power-sharing agreement between mortal enemies and strong economic growth are reason for optimism.

Operation Banner was and is a case study in counterinsurgency which will be studied indefinitely. The expectation in August 1969 was that the violence could be quelled in weeks. It wasn’t to be. Bloody Sunday and a torrent of violence ensued, followed by stalemate and a decade of painstaking peace talks involving terrorists, statesmen, militiamen and many more in between. Thirty-eight years and 300,000 troops later, Operation Banner ends as the longest military operation in British history, imperfect but now ending on as positive a note as could be hoped for. The remaining British garrison of approximately 5,000 troops is only slightly larger than the pre-Banner force in 1969. They are not slated for operations in Northern Ireland. Soldiers there train for Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The key element for Northern Ireland remains the remarkable historical power-sharing agreement hatched in March between the Democratic Unionist Party, whose the Rev. Ian Paisley is first minister, and Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness, now the deputy first minister. This government seems to be progressing well despite initial skepticism and wonderment. In fairness, such a government was unthinkable for both sides until recently. The crucial meeting was reportedly icy, with neither man able to look his arch-enemy in the face nor shake his hand. But the bargain was struck. The arrangements entail substantial elements of home rule which Mr. Paisley would have opposed previously, while it entails for Mr. Paisley a primacy of place in politics. On the Sinn Fein side, the chief obstacle surmounted is the party’s unqualified support for Northern Ireland’s police force, secured in January. In addition, solidifying the influence of Mr. McGuinness and allies was crucial.

The bargain struck many as Faustian, involving as it did significant rewards for onetime terrorists and terrorist-linked political actors. Given the long history of violent Anglo-Irish conflict and Catholic-Protestant enmity, though, peace for Ulster still owes much to the realm of hope even as hard conclusions look favorable. History can be quite stubborn.