Power-sharing in Pakistan

After the bloody but successful raid against the Red Mosque in Islamabad, President Pervez Musharraf decided to finally go to war against Pakistan’s growing number of hardline, Taliban-style militants, even sending troops into the northwest frontier provinces. This is welcome news for the United States, but it is set against the backdrop of serious political problems for Gen. Musharraf.

Pakistan’s constitution requires Gen. Musharraf to resign his military commission before seeking re-election, but the general has announced that he does not intend to do so. It will be up to Pakistan’s Supreme Court to rule on the issue. Gen. Musharraf tactlessly and unsuccessfully tried to sack the court’s chief justice earlier this year, which spurred violent protests and marked the beginning of the president’s political decline.

Gen. Musharraf wants to ensure his re-election by asking the current national and provincial assemblies to elect the next president. His opposition wants to see a new election first, one that is free from the manipulation that marred the 2002 election. That, too, will be ruled on by the supreme court. Washington has also called for a free and fair election, and, indeed, has good reason to do so. Gen. Musharraf’s attempts to combat terrorists and Islamists have been hamstrung by a lack of legitimacy. But to consider democracy a panacea underestimates the complexity of Pakistan’s problems.

A civilian government is likely to have trouble exerting its authority over Pakistan’s military leaders, which has been a problem Pakistan has grappled with in the past. “Washington’s choice is not between Musharraf and democracy, nor is it between Musharraf and radical militants,” wrote Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Rather, the choice is between an army chief (Musharraf or a successor) in a coalition with progressives and moderates and an army chief in league with other less appealing partners.”

Observers agree that a truly free and fair election will not return Gen. Musharraf’s supporters to power, and that seems to have sent him looking for an alliance with his mainstream opposition, led by exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Government officials have confirmed reports that Gen. Musharraf and Mrs. Bhutto met last week in the United Arab Emirates. Neither leader has talked publicly about the meeting, but Mrs. Bhutto has insisted that any deal would require Gen. Musharraf to leave his military command.

If the general tries to hold on to power by fixing the election — or by declaring a state of emergency and delaying the election altogether — he would face widespread protests that would compel him to either acquiesce or resort to violence, warns a recent report from the International Crisis Group. The power-sharing deal with Mrs. Bhutto seems to be Gen. Musharraf’s best bet to retain some influence after the election, and it would shift his base from Islamists to moderates. Coupled with a reinvigorated military offensive, an agreement between Gen. Musharraf and secular moderates would augur well for Pakistan’s battle against terrorists and Islamists, and for U.S. interests.