Violence endangers elections in Nepal

In Nepal, elections for the constituent assembly scheduled for Nov. 22 appear increasingly uncertain as violence in nine of the 20 southern districts known as Terai (also called Madhesh) and sporadic violence committed by outlaws in other parts of the country, including Katmandu, continues unabated.

Adding to the uncertainty is the latest move by former Maoist rebels, now partners in the eight-party coalition government, setting two preconditions — declaration of a republic and adoption of a fully proportional electoral system — to “create an environment” for the election of 480 members of the constituent assembly.

The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) announced its preconditions after a week of deliberations at the party plenum, attended by over 2,100 members in Katmandu during Aug. 1-7.

Maoist leader Prachanda declared last Sunday that his party’s rationale for continuing in the government is diminished and that the party will soon decide whether to withdraw from the government altogether, but added that his party will not shy away from the elections and that “preconditions” ought to be understood as the party “position.”

Constitutionally, declaring Nepal a republic requires a two-thirds majority in parliament. The support of the Nepali Congress (NC) party is vital as the communists’ combined strength in parliament is only 55 percent. Analysts, however, say that such support from the NC is not likely, as Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, 84, still wants to keep monarchy as a ceremonial institution and a royal shield for democratic parties against the onslaught of revolutionary communists.

Analysts say inclusion of a proportional system of elections may be possible with an amendment to the constitution but it will be impossible to hold elections by Nov. 22, as that would require more homework to implement the paraphernalia of a proportional election system.

Leaders of other non-Maoist parties in the ruling coalition criticized the Maoist preconditions as an attempt to postpone the elections.

Critics say declaring Nepal a republic prior to the constituent assembly elections would violate earlier agreements in which the Maoists agreed to decide the fate of the monarchy in the first meeting of the assembly with a simple majority.

At the Maoist party plenum, delegates pressured the party leadership to withdraw from the government and start a “people’s revolt” to sweep the remnants of its disgraced monarchy, which Maoists say is behind the violence in the Terai region and aims to derail the constituent assembly elections.

Hopes of a peaceful Nepal quickly eroded after last November when Maoists and the seven-party alliance introduced an interim constitution to manage the country until the duly elected constituent assembly drafts a new constitution. The interim constitution, however, failed to incorporate the demands of the several ethnic and regional groups for proportional representation within the federal system of government.

Analysts say seven-party alliance leaders refused to agree to a proportional electoral system, treating the previous single-member constituencies as their political inheritance while Maoists reasoned that any delay in constituent assembly elections would only help the traditional forces of monarchy. Confident of their electoral victory, the Maoists thought they could address the issues of an electoral system as per their earlier stand and include them in the new constitution to be drafted by the constituent assembly itself.

The interim constitution that emerged as a compromise document between the political parties and the former Maoist rebels, however, was quickly opposed by the Madheshi, or the people of the Terai, as well as the ethnic groups known as Jana-Jatis, who live in the mountains.

Within a week of the creation of the interim constitution, the Madheshi demanded regional autonomy with proportional representation. Ever since, the Terai/Madhesh region has faced unrest, with armed groups engaging in killings, abductions, looting and extortion of the people of hill origin.

Among the 14 armed groups reported by the local press, the most prominent are the Madheshi Janadhikar Forum (MJF, also known as Madheshi People’s Rights Forum), led by Upendra Yadhav, and the two factions of the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM), led by Jaya Krishna Goit (JTMM-G) and Nagendra Kumar Paswan, aka Jwala Singh (JTMM-J), respectively.

Mr. Koirala opened negotiations with Madheshi Janadhikar Forum, which seeks greater ethnic-regional autonomy, with a goal to restore normalcy in the Terai for peaceful elections, but so far the results are not encouraging.

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