Can Globes predict Oscar glory?

LOS ANGELES

Academy Awards watchers like to turn Hollywood’s season of film honors into a showdown between two main contenders.

Tomorrow’s Golden Globes (airing live at 8 p.m. on NBC) could play into that: The winner of the Globes for best drama and best musical or comedy might end up duking it out at the Oscars.

The Globes are one of the few key Hollywood ceremonies that salutes both heavyweight dramas favored at the Oscars and lighter films that often get overlooked during awards season.

That bodes well this year for such powerhouse musical or comedy performances as supporting-acting Globe contenders Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson in “Dreamgirls,” who have strong Oscar prospects along with lead dramatic nominees Dame Helen Mirren of “The Queen” and Forest Whitaker of “The Last King of Scotland.”

A musical crowd pleaser, “Dreamgirls” could follow the pattern of 2002’s “Chicago,” which won the musical or comedy Globe and went on to snatch the best-picture Oscar over such sober stories as “The Hours,” “The Pianist” and “Gangs of New York.”

“Obviously, we don’t want to count anything before it happens, but it has to do with voters voting on the film rather than the category. ‘Dreamgirls’ happens to be a movie for everyone,” says Jim Tharp, head of distribution for Paramount, which inherited the musical when it acquired DreamWorks.

Assuming it wins the musical or comedy prize at the Globes, “Dreamgirls” may wind up in an Oscar battle with the mob epic “The Departed,” the ensemble tale “Babel” or the palace-crisis saga “The Queen,” all nominated for the best-drama Globe.

“Dreamgirls” could be joined in the Oscar race by another audience favorite that was nominated for the musical or comedy Globe, the road-trip comedy “Little Miss Sunshine.”

“I think ‘Dreamgirls’ is a lock for an Oscar nomination, and ‘Little Miss Sunshine’ is extremely popular with academy audiences,” says Philip Berk, president of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which presents the Globes.

“Some years, the comedy or musical category is weak, particularly in terms of acting,” Mr. Berk says. “Lately, it’s been a very powerful category.”

Two winners of the musical or comedy acting Globes — Reese Witherspoon for “Walk the Line” and Jamie Foxx for “Ray”— went on to receive Oscars the last two years over their counterparts in the Globe dramatic-acting categories.

Along with prizes from Hollywood trade unions and critics groups, the Globes help sort out the most deserving films from a crowded lineup of awards seekers. Most years, a best-picture winner at the Globes goes on to win the same honor at the Oscars — but not always.

Last year, just two Globe best-picture contenders — drama nominees “Brokeback Mountain” and “Good Night, and Good Luck” — grabbed best-picture nominations at the Oscars. Globe voters did not nominate “Crash,” the eventual Oscar champ.

The Globes and Oscars also diverged two years ago. “The Aviator” won best drama at the Globes, while Oscar voters crowned “Million Dollar Baby.”

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