Count votes, not money

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The excessive attention given the huge sums of money raised by the Democratic presidential frontrunners overlooks an important irony in recent political history: The best-funded candidates often lose in the early caucuses and primaries.

Ask Joe Trippi, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's campaign manager in the 2003-04 presidential election cycle. Mr. Dean was by far the high fund-raiser in 2003, and thus the prohibitive favorite for the nomination. At least so the national campaign press corps believed and reported.

By the end of fourth-quarter 2003, just days before the Iowa caucuses, Mr. Dean had raked in $14 million more. Cash-strapped Sen. John Kerry reported raising an anemic $2.5 million. But Mr. Kerry trounced Mr. Dean in back-to-back contests in Iowa and New Hampshire and went on to win the nomination.

This is the cautionary tale discussed in back rooms by campaign strategists for some of the second tier Democratic hopefuls, and by many election analysts and fund-raisers. They think that the Washington press corps has exaggerated the importance of big money at this early stage of the campaign.

"Historically, the amount of money raised in the pre-primary cycle has not been a good indicator of who wins the nomination," Mr. Trippi told me. Mr. Trippi is an adviser to former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards' presidential campaign and hopes the Democrats' 2004 vice-presidential nominee will turn out to be one of those come-from-behind surprises. Mr. Edwards has been stuck in third place for months in all the national polls but remains a serious contender. Still, there's a lot of historical evidence behind Mr. Trippi's point.

The year before the 2004 campaigns officially began, Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, the party's 2000 vice-presidential nominee, led in all the early polls and Mr. Dean was breaking all money-raising records over the Internet. But both were abysmal failures in the primaries.

"Why does money draw so much attention by the press? They can only report on two things at this early juncture: polls and who's winning the fund-raising race, neither of which, by the way, is a good indication of who wins," Mr. Trippi said.

Perhaps the classic example of this belongs to Jimmy Carter's former vice president, Walter Mondale, who by the end of 1983 had raised $9.4 million and led in all the polls. "But a guy by the name of [Colorado Sen.] Gary Hart, who had a message and not much money at all, beat him in the primaries and actually won more convention delegates," Mr. Trippi said. If party bigwigs had not corralled the unpledged super delegates on Mr. Mondale's behalf, Mr. Hart would have been the nominee.

Veteran Democratic campaign fund-raising consultant Mike Lux voices similar doubts about the strategic importance of money this early in the campaign.

"I do think that the role of money is exaggerated. Since 1972 when the presidential nominating process was opened up to the primaries, the person with the most money in the early going has not gone on to win," Mr. Lux said. "It's overrated."

"What presidential candidates need in the campaign cycle right now is enough money to run a strong enough campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, and beyond that, if they do those two things well, momentum can take them the rest of the way," he said.

"This is not to say that these strategists believe that money is irrelevant in who wins next year's caucuses and primaries. Rather, they argue that the amount of money raised this early in the two-year marathon race is not a reliable basis on which to forecast who will be the strongest candidate next January.

"Is there someone out there who really thinks second-quarter fund-raising — or even third-quarter numbers — have a great predictive value in guessing which candidates will win the nomination?" says campaign analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

Steve Grossman, who chaired the Democratic National Committee during Bill Clinton's presidency, cautions that "money is clearly relevant to competitiveness and the perception of competitiveness. Yet there are lots of examples of people who have trumped their opponents in the money race but failed to do it at the ballot box."

Even so, the Democrats' heavy money is betting on Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who has raised $58.5 million, followed closely by New York Sen. Hillary Clinton with $52.5 million. Mr. Edwards lags with $23 million.

But even at this early date, the big money isn't necessarily impressing the folks in Iowa where Mr. Edwards has the edge in most polls.

Mr. Grossman, a Massachusetts businessman, supports Hillary and believes she will be the party's nominee. Nevertheless, he "would not rule out somebody else catching fire and creating a surprise" in next January's first four contests.

The reason for this added caveat: The last presidential candidate he backed was Howard Dean.

Donald Lambro, chief political correspondent of The Washington Times, is a nationally syndicated columnist.