Silver lining postulated for global warming cloud

GHENT, N.Y. (AP) — It’s not in Al Gore’s PowerPoint presentation, but there are some upsides to global warming.

Northern homes could save on heating fuel. Rust Belt cities might stop losing “snowbirds” to the South. Canadian farmers could harvest bumper crops. Greenland may become awash in cod and oil riches. Shippers could count on an Arctic shortcut between the Atlantic and Pacific. Forests may expand.

This is all speculative, even a little facetious, and any gains are not likely to make up for predicted frightening upheavals elsewhere. But still … might there be a silver lining for the frigid regions of Canada and Russia?

“It’s not that there won’t be bad things happening in those countries. There will be — things like, you’ll lose polar bears,” said economic professor Robert O. Mendelsohn of the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. “But the idea is that they will get such large gains, especially in agriculture, that they will be bigger than the losses.”

Mr. Mendelsohn looked at how gross domestic product around the world would be affected under different warming scenarios though 2100. Canada and Russia tend to come out as gainers, as does much of northern Europe and Mongolia.

This is largely because of projected gains in agricultural production in those areas. Many researchers think that if the world warms up, the sweet spots for growing crops will migrate toward the poles. Some people say the phenomenon is already manifesting itself in bountiful forsythia blooms in Vermont and maple sap flowing in upstate New York in January.

“I’ve been betting on it for years,” said Chris Loken, a Hudson Valley apple grower who years ago diversified his LoveApple Farm with an eye toward warmer weather.

Among acres of apple trees lined up along bucolic hills in Ghent, N.Y., Mr. Loken planted stands of peach, apricot and plum. Frosty upstate New York winters are not always kind to those trees, but the 75-year-old farmer is counting on a trend of milder winters.

“This farm here has been set up for the future,” he said.

The future may have arrived already in icy Greenland, where fishermen are thrilled by the return of cod and farmers are reporting higher yields.

“Maybe the turnips get a little bit bigger, and the potatoes get a little bit bigger, but that’s important,” said Kenneth Hoegh, a government agricultural adviser. “We are right on the edge here for agriculture.”

Jesper Madsen, who directs Arctic research at the National Environmental Research Institute in Denmark, said Greenland’s agricultural gains would seem like small potatoes economically if the retreating ice there clears the way for more oil drilling.

Still, people shouldn’t start planting banana trees in Boise or book a beach vacation in Iceland just yet. A likely warm up would be gradual and might even be mitigated if the world cuts greenhouse-gas emissions.