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The IPhone cometh
“I didn’t know I wanted it,” said the analyst with In-Stat, a research firm in Scottsdale, Ariz. “I saw this little tiny Nano and this great high-resolution screen with pictures. And then I picked that thing up and held it and used it. I had to have it.”
Apple Inc. is set to release its much-anticipated IPhone tomorrow, the latest “must-have” in the company’s line of “cool” consumer-technology products. The phone — also a music player, camera and wireless Web device — is expectedto sell out initially, despite its heftyprice tag of $499 to $599.
IPhone enthusiasts got in line earlier this week at the Apple Store on Fifth Avenue in New York. Message-board posters on the Washington-area’s Craigslist are offering to “line-sit” in return for payments of up to $200.
“There’s a huge amount of interest from buzz,” Mr. Chamberlain said. “They could ask double that initially, and they’d still sell every one that they had in stores.”
Apple stores will close tomorrow at 2 p.m.to prepare for the IPhone’s premiere and will reopen at 6 p.m. The phones will also be sold through Apple’s Web site and atAT&T stores, which will follow a similar closing procedure but will stay open until 10 p.m.
Apple executives have a goal of selling 10 million phones by the end of 2008, about 1 percent of total handset sales worldwide. But the phone’s high price and some drawbacks could end up disappointing buyers, especially with such loftyexpectations already set. For example, analysts say the battery life is too short.
Only 9 percent of all mobile-phone subscribers in the U.S. showed “strong interest” in buying an IPhone, according a survey from M:Metrics, a wireless-research firm. And 67 percent of those who are most inclined to buy an IPhone are not AT&T subscribers, which has a five-year exclusive contract with Apple, according to the survey.
“It runs the risk of being a little less than all that emotional investment that we put into it, said Shiv Bakhshi, director of mobility research at IDC, a research firm based in Framingham, Mass. “So when it gets so hyped and so popular, there’s always the fear of the letdown.”
Still, the phone could excel, Mr. Bakhshi said. Initially, the phone will have limited appeal — mostly to early adopters and status-seekers — because of its price.
Mr. Chamberlain expects thatevery shipped IPhone in the first two weeks, maybe a month, will be sold. But he doesn’t expect competitors to be hurt by the gadget.
In the larger scheme, the IPhone is just another phone, Mr. Bakhshi said. Its planned sales for the end of 2008 are a small portion of the handset market.
“It’s only 10 million out of 1 billion, which is essentially a rounding error,” he said. “But it could force other vendors to experiment with design.”
By Donald Lambro
Growth spikes are little more than trend-free anomalies
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