Giuliani strong out of the gate

Former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has won the early part of Campaign 2008, defying conventional wisdom about Republicans liberal on social issues, to surge to a staggering share of support in surveys of potential primary voters.

Since announcing his exploratory committee for president in November, Mr. Giuliani has seen his standing in the polls grow by about 15 percentage points, to hover around 40 percent of possible primary voters. He also proved last weekend his appeal can reach even the most conservative of audiences as he won the combined first and second choice ballot at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll.

And Mr. Giuliani’s camp says they haven’t even put their full team on the field yet.

“What’s fascinating, even more than just this whole notion about the conservatives, is generally speaking, he’s doing so well for really not having started the campaign in earnest yet,” said Jim Nussle, a former member of Congress and gubernatorial candidate in Iowa who has signed on with Mr. Giuliani. “There is a hunger among Republicans for success, that recognizes if we don’t win, we don’t govern.”

Mr. Giuliani’s performance is surprising to many in a party identified with pro-life, pro-gun rights positions.

The question, pollsters say, is whether the man styled as “America’s Mayor” is cruising on leftover good feelings from his term as New York mayor, when he led the city through the aftermath of the September 11 attacks.

“We don’t know whether he’s doing well because social conservatives don’t know about his views on abortion, gay rights and gun control, or they don’t care,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director at the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

He said it will be some time before that question is answered, because most voters, even in a primary, won’t take a close look at their choices until closer to the time they vote.

Mr. Nussle said Mr. Giuliani is appealing to Republicans, Democrats and independents by pointing to results from his eight years as mayor of a city with a larger population than most states, including a dramatic drop in crime. He added there’s even a term for Democrats who gravitate toward Mr. Giuliani — “Rudycrats.”

“We are starting to remember the common denominator that was successful for President Reagan, and that was strength, growth and opportunity,” Mr. Nussle said.

At the same time, the results from this weekend’s CPAC straw poll show Mr. Giuliani’s appeal to conservatives. Among those who said their core conservative belief was security, Mr. Giuliani topped the field with 25 percent. And he won 21 percent of those whose core belief was individual freedom and limited government, good for second place behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

“At CPAC, there wasn’t one person in the room who did not specifically know his positions on just about every issue,” Mr. Nussle said. “This is one of the most savvy conservative groups you could speak to.”

But CPAC also showed Mr. Giuliani’s weakness. He lagged in fourth place, at just 8 percent, among those whose core conservative principle was adherence to “traditional values.”

Richard Land, head of public policy for the Southern Baptist Convention, told the Associated Press that evangelical voters will be turned off by Mr. Giuliani’s family history — two divorces, including moving in with Judith Nathan, who would become his third wife, before the divorce from Donna Hanover was final.

“This is divorce on steroids,” Mr. Land said. “To publicly humiliate your wife in that way, and your children. That’s rough. I think that’s going to be an awfully hard sell, even if he weren’t pro-choice and pro-gun control.”

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