Record gas prices seen likely in summer

Gas prices are likely to set records this summer but probably won’t reach $4 per gallon, energy analysts said yesterday.

“The average gasoline pump price in the U.S. is likely to rise to a record this summer because of refinery disruptions and the high cost of crude oil,” Energy Secretary Samuel W. Bodman told reporters yesterday.

“I’m very concerned about this,” said Mr. Bodman, adding that gas prices could top the post-Hurricane Katrina record of $3.067.

The average price for regular unleaded gasoline in the D.C. area rose 7 cents last week to $2.97 according to AAA, the nation’s largest motorist organization, but prices at many gas stations in the region have already blown past the $3 mark.

A gallon of regular gas cost $3.49 yesterday at the Watergate Exxon on Virginia Avenue Northwest, the highest price in the region, according to www.gasbuddy.com. A gallon of gas cost $3.29 at the Wildwood Manor Exxon in Bethesda and $3.16 at the Langley Exxon in McLean.

“The good news is we’re not paying as much as we were last year,” said John Townsend, a spokesman for AAA Mid-Atlantic.

A year ago, Washington area motorists paid an average $3.03 a gallon for a gallon of regular.

“The bad news is this is the 12th week that prices have increased,” said Mr. Townsend. “We’ve been spending more over a protracted period of time.”

Memorial Day weekend marks the traditional beginning of the summer driving season, so the fact that prices are escalating so early does not bode well for consumers, Mr. Townsend said.

“But will it reach $4 a gallon? I’m crossing my fingers, no,” said Mr. Townsend. “I don’t think the economy can stand it.”

Other analysts agree.

Doug MacIntyre, an analyst with the Energy Information Administration (EIA), said he doesn’t believe consumers will see $4 gas this summer.

“Assuming that there are no more refinery problems, gas prices could go down as early as June,” he said.

Mr. MacIntyre said production problems at U.S. oil refineries were partly to blame for escalating prices.

“In the past few months there have been a number of refinery outages and refinery maintenance [issues],” said Mr. MacIntyre. “As a result we have drawn down our inventories, which are at their lowest for this time of the year since 1991.”

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