A crude awakening

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"I heard the voice of the Lord, saying, "Whom shall I send, and who will go for Us?" Then I said, "Here am I. Send me!"

— Isaiah 6:8

From the time of its infancy, when the people of the United States have faced trial, danger or threat, men and women with the right stuff have always risen to the occasion to provide the leadership needed to navigate our nation through the difficulties. Names such as Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Grant, Roosevelt, Rosa Parks and Kennedy come to mind. But with possibly the greatest threat to America's long term economic and national security looming just beyond the horizon, no leader has shown the courage, wisdom or iron will necessary to lead America to successfully combat this rapidly approaching problem: The peaking of conventional oil.

Most people in America today believe that the flow of crude oil which powers our national (and global) economy will continue flowing at its current rate and relatively low price indefinitely. The only point of concern most have is that posed by our "dependence" on foreign oil. But the fact of the matter is that we face a much more serious and eminent danger once the peak of oil has been reached.

Roughly defined, this peak occurs when half of the world's endowment of cheap crude oil has been pumped from the ground. For various geological reasons, once the halfway point has been reached, the rest is much more difficult and expensive to extract. But the real problem — and the danger — is that once this peak occurs, the global supply of conventional oil will enter a terminal decline at precisely the same time global demand reaches an all time high. When developing nations like China and India are unable to continue their extraordinary economic growth, and when developed nations are unable to sustain the level of economic development they've enjoyed since the end of World War II, turmoil is the likely outcome, and eventually the pressures for major war over dwindling natural resources rises dramatically.

Most Americans today would be shocked to know that a growing number of international experts believe this peaking of oil will happen in just the next few years — or that it has already happened. According to recently released statistics by Department of Energy's Energy Information Agency, when global production ought to have increased 6 percent to 8 percent between 2004 and the first half of 2007, it has instead remained static. In the past 37 consecutive months, the global daily production of crude oil has been virtually unchanged at 85 million barrels a day while global demand continues to grow at record pace; this inequality cannot continue much longer before meaningful economic consequences result.

Over the past few years a number of high profile figures have warned of the looming onset of peak oil and the serious economic and national security ramifications that will follow:

• On June 23, 2005, former CIA Director (and current Secretary of Defense) Robert M. Gates led a group of high ranking former administration officials in an exercise called "Oil Shockwave," simulating an oil shortage. Mr. Gates warned that America's vulnerability to disruptions in oil were "real and urgent, requiring immediate and sustained attention at the highest levels of government." Since that warning, no action commensurate with the caliber of danger cited has been taken by any level of government.

• On July 18 of this year, the National Petroleum Council (NPC) held a conference in Washington to present the findings of their two-years-in-the-making report on the ability of global oil and natural gas supply to keep pace with growing world demand. The NPC reported that, "There is no single, easy solution to the global challenges ahead. Given the massive scale of the global energy system and the long lead-times necessary to make material changes, actions must be initiated now and sustained over the long term." Despite the urgency of their calls for change, in the nearly three months since their report was issued no action has been taken.

There are numerous other government and industry studies that have reached similar — and in some cases more dire — conclusions, most of which warn that the lead time necessary to mitigate the consequences of the peaking of oil will be measured in decades. And yet despite these warnings, the only response has been more studies, more analysis, and more conferences. Certainly the administration would seem the obvious choice to lead the painful change necessary to protect our economic and national security future. But since that hasn't happened, leadership must come from somewhere else. Whether an influential congressman or senator, a state governor or some other nationally respected leader, someone must step up to first educate America on the gravity of the situation and then provide the leadership necessary to safeguard our future.

The continued absence of moral courage in our national leadership to do the right-but-painful thing will lead us to disaster. We desperately need a present-day Isaiah to say, "Here am I, send me!"

Maj. Daniel L. Davis is a cavalry officer who fought in Desert Storm in 1991 and served in Afghanistan in 2005.