Senate turn to the right forecast

Virginia conservatives are optimistic they will have a louder voice in the state Senate next year, even if Republicans lose control of the chamber in the fall election.

“Whether or not we can keep the majority in the state Senate, the Republican caucus will be more conservative,” said Paul Jost, chairman of the Virginia Club for Growth.

For years, conservatives have blamed Senate Republicans for bucking the party’s basic tenets of less government and less taxation. They now see the Nov. 6 election — when all 140 General Assembly seats are up for grabs — as a prime opportunity to return the party to its core values.

The optimism stems from victories in bitter Republican primaries, and the retirements of veteran Sens. H. Russell Potts, the Winchester Republican who lost an independent bid for governor in 2005, Charles R. Hawkins, Campbell County Republican, and powerful Senate Finance Chairman John H. Chichester, Stafford Republican, whose appetite for higher taxes disgusted grass-roots activists.

“This is a major election that could change the Senate in a good way” said Robin DeJarnette, president of the Virginia Conservative Action PAC. “We may be able to help restart the economy by having leaders who are fiscally responsible.”

Conservatives hope five incumbent allies survive Election Day and they can pick up five or more additional seats, said James T. Parmelee, Republicans United for Tax Reform president.

“That’s five Republican seats that either move to the right or they go to the Democrats, and it looks to me that all five of those will stay Republican and go right,” Mr. Parmelee said.

While Democrats say the conservative candidates are “too extreme” for Virginia voters, conservatives say bolstering their presence would help strengthen the commonwealth’s anti-illegal-alien, pro-school-choice and pro-life movements.

Victoria Cobb, president of the Family Foundation of Virginia, said Mr. Potts’ retirement increases the likelihood that the education and health committee he chaired will consider pro-life legislation. “He has always been an obstacle to our bills receiving a fair hearing,” she said.

Others say new conservative blood also could push the Senate Republican Caucus to the brink of a leadership shake-up.

The conservative backlash ballooned this year after the Republican-controlled General Assembly passed a tax- and fee-laden multibillion-dollar transportation package.

While it marked the largest infusion of state money for transportation since 1986, tax foes called it the “antithesis” of conservative ideology and constitutionally challenged the plan.

In the June primaries conservatives ousted Sens. Marty E. Williams of Newport News and J. Brandon Bell II of Roanoke, Republicans who backed former Gov. Mark Warner’s $1.38 billion tax increase in 2004. They also nearly knocked off Senate Majority Leader Walter A. Stosch, Henrico Republican, who survived determined tax-foe challenger Joseph Blackburn.

Tricia Stall, a self-described “tireless taxpayer advocate” defeated Mr. Williams. Former Roanoke Mayor Ralph Smith replaced Mr. Bell, vowing he “never will” break his “pledge to exercise fiscal responsibility and budgetary restraint.”

By most accounts, Mr. Smith should win, while Miss Stall is in the cross hairs of Democrats, who need four seats to control the Senate.

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