Troubling times in Pakistan

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After former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's return to Pakistan was marred by lethal bombings in Karachi, in which at least 136 were killed and upwards of 300 wounded, the visibly shaken Mrs. Bhutto was whisked to safety following the long-awaited end of her exile this week. Meanwhile, Karachi reeled from the devastation. This is how al Qaeda and affiliated extremists engage in political "dialogue" with their opponents: by killing and maiming. The blood of the innocent is spilled as a warning to relative moderates like Mrs. Bhutto, who simply want their turbulent country to experience a relatively normal existence

The deal which Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf struck with Mrs. Bhutto exchanges five more years of the general's presidency in return for the former prime minister's immunity to corruption charges dating from her years in office during the late 1980s and the 1990s. The agreement serves as a reminder that Gen. Musharraf is an authoritarian ruler, not a democratic one, and that Pakistan has a long way to go to become a genuinely democratic nation like its neighbor and archrival India. Still, insofar as the agreement between Gen. Musharraf and Mrs. Bhutto could lead eventually to a more democratic Pakistan with an opposition that the ruling party respects, some good may come of it in time.

But right now this nuclear-armed country is teetering on the edge of catastrophe. Increased militancy in border regions, this summer's Red Mosque siege and now the devastation in Karachi are the three most potent signs, but they are only the beginning. Since taking power in 1999 — and continuing after September 11 — Gen. Musharraf has simultaneously attempted to placate the anti-terror Western powers and sympathizers of radical Islamist groups, including Al Qaeda, many of whom would like to impose Taliban-style governance on Pakistan. In the long run, this approach is unsustainable. The extensive penetration of Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency by radical Islamists, including al Qaeda sympathizers, remains a huge problem. It continues to be a huge obstacle to Islamabad's full-fledged cooperation with Washington in fighting terrorism.

But public opinion does give some signs of a trend toward moderation. In August, the Pew Research Center released polling data suggesting that by one very important measure, Pakistanis may be wearying of the lunatic jihadists in their midst: Only 9 percent of Pakistani Muslims polled this year agreed that suicide attacks are "often or sometimes" justified in order to defend Islam from its enemies; another 9 percent said they are "rarely" justified, while 72 percent said this kind of violence is never defensible. (By way of contrast, three years ago 41 percent of Pakistani Muslim respondents told Pew "that suicide bombings and other forms of violence against civilians were 'often' or 'sometimes justified' in order to defend Islam from its enemies, while only 35 percent felt that such attacks were never justified.")

But with Pakistan, even the relatively "good" news can be very sobering: In 2005, according to Pew, 51 percent of Pakistanis said they had a lot or some confidence in Osama bin Laden "to do the right thing in world affairs," a figure which fell to 38 percent this year. But in a country with a population estimated at approximately 165 million people, that means that approximately 60 to 65 million express confidence in the al Qaeda leader. Many of these people were no doubt applauding the bloodshed that took place in Karachi last week.

One unmistakably hopeful development occurred on Friday, when the Foreign Ministry of India released a statement describing a conversation which involved Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Mrs. Bhutto after the violence in Karachi. Mr. Mukherjee "expressed his sorrow at the dastardly act and was thankful that she escaped unhurt" and "expressed condolences for those who had lost their lives," the statement said. India's apparent willingness to reach out to moderate elements in Pakistan like Mrs. Bhutto is welcome news indeed.