History says Obama needs experienced VP

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By Martin Sieff, UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

Who has presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois chosen as his running mate?

Is it Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware or Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius?

Or is it some surprise dark horse?

The conventional wisdom states that a vice-presidential pick really isn't that important.

There's a lot of evidence to support that view: A pick who proves embarrassing (like Sen. Dan Quayle, Indiana Republican, did for Vice President George H.W. Bush in 1988) or feckless (like Rep. Geraldine Ferraro, New York Democrat, for former Vice President Walter Mondale in 1984) can weigh down a presidential candidate but not necessarily kill the campaign.

In fact, Mr. Bush coasted to victory in 1988 against Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, even though Mr. Dukakis had one of the most impressive and effective vice-presidential candidates in recent memory - Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, Texas Democrat.

What's more, Mr. Mondale in 1984 was a dead duck against President Reagan, anyway. It wouldn't have mattered if he had chosen Bruce Springsteen as his running mate: He was going down, no matter what.

But there have been a number of occasions in American political history when choosing the right running mate did decisively tip the scales:

cFranklin Roosevelt would never have won the Democratic presidential nomination in 1932 had he not cut a deal with House Speaker John Nance Garner of Texas. Garner's support proved crucial in putting FDR over the top at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.