History says Obama needs experienced VP

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

Who has presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois chosen as his running mate?

Is it Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware or Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius?

Or is it some surprise dark horse?

The conventional wisdom states that a vice-presidential pick really isn’t that important.

There’s a lot of evidence to support that view: A pick who proves embarrassing (like Sen. Dan Quayle, Indiana Republican, did for Vice President George H.W. Bush in 1988) or feckless (like Rep. Geraldine Ferraro, New York Democrat, for former Vice President Walter Mondale in 1984) can weigh down a presidential candidate but not necessarily kill the campaign.

In fact, Mr. Bush coasted to victory in 1988 against Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, even though Mr. Dukakis had one of the most impressive and effective vice-presidential candidates in recent memory - Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, Texas Democrat.

What’s more, Mr. Mondale in 1984 was a dead duck against President Reagan, anyway. It wouldn’t have mattered if he had chosen Bruce Springsteen as his running mate: He was going down, no matter what.

But there have been a number of occasions in American political history when choosing the right running mate did decisively tip the scales:

cFranklin Roosevelt would never have won the Democratic presidential nomination in 1932 had he not cut a deal with House Speaker John Nance Garner of Texas. Garner’s support proved crucial in putting FDR over the top at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Running at the height of the Great Depression, FDR probably would have beaten President Herbert Hoover handsomely anyway. But he had no standing or credibility in his own right among the vast agrarian, homeland wing of the Democratic Party in the South, Midwest and California.

“Cactus Jack” Garner - backed by former Treasury Secretary William Gibbs McAdoo and the then-unmatched media power of William Randolph Hearst’s INS wire service and a national chain of newspapers - was able to rally that support for FDR in an irresistible tidal wave. Garner went on to serve two terms as one of the most powerful vice presidents in U.S. history.

cIn 1960, Sen. John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts had no trouble in winning the Democratic presidential nomination in his own right. He didn’t need the support of Sen. Lyndon Baines Johnson of Texas for that.

But he desperately needed Johnson’s clout to carry Texas for him in one of the most nail-biting finishes in U.S. history. If JFK hadn’t put LBJ on the ticket, he likely would have lost. And from civil rights to the Apollo man-on-the-moon program, Johnson proved to be a powerful vice president who pushed his favored causes with Congress and got things done.

cVice President Dick Cheney has been widely reviled by the left for his purported exercise of exceptional power during President Bush’s two terms in office. Mr. Bush might not even have squeaked into the White House at all if it hadn’t been for Mr. Cheney.

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