Slump in economy doesn’t worsen crime

Economic downturn and criminal upswing. Not necessarily. Research shows that crime waves — at least the violent variety — don’t usually follow in the wake of economic bear markets such ours.

“Many people think that ‘of course when the economy goes south, crime goes north,’ but that’s simply not true,” says David Kennedy, professor of anthropology at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York.

For example, during the Great Depression, crime rates were low even though the economy hit rock bottom, with throngs of people losing their jobs and hitting soup kitchens.

In sharp contrast, in the 1920s — a time of great prosperity at the end of the Gilded Age — crime rates were high.

Why?

Prohibition. Murders and other violent crimes were linked to the illegal, underground brewing and selling of alcohol. When Prohibition was repealed in 1933 - in the midst of the desperate Great Depression - violent crime dropped significantly, Mr. Kennedy says.

“The economy hit a historic low, but Prohibition was repealed,” he says.

In general, violent crime in the 20th and 21st centuries has had much more to do with the microeconomic market surrounding illegal substance use than anything associated with the mainstream, macroeconomic market.

Another example of this phenomenon is the heroin epidemic in the 1960s and ‘70s. The economy was up, but the surging heroin market drove crime rates higher.

Most recently, in urban areas, the crack epidemic of the late 1980s and early 1990s drove crime - particularly violent crimes such as aggravated assault and homicides - through the roof.

In the District, for example, 454 homicides were committed in 1993.

“That was not about the economy. That was about crack,” Mr. Kennedy says.

Compare that to 185 homicides this year, as of Dec. 30.

That’s not to say the economy has nothing to do with violent crime, says Steven Raphael, an economist and professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley.

It’s just that as a driver of crime, the economy pales in comparison to other factors, he says.

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