Running mate guessing game begins

It’s too early — way too early, ridiculously early — but like it or not, the sweepstakes for the Republican veep nomination already has begun.

Photos:Potomac primaries

With Sen. John McCain quickly becoming the apparent Republican presidential nominee, talk at his Virginia victory party last night was already shifting to whom he would pick — could pick, should pick — as his vice presidential running mate.

The inside-the-Beltway sport of trying to divine a presidential candidate’s running mate comes with several tried-and-true rules, beginning with defining what qualities will offset the political weaknesses at the top of the ticket.

First, Mr. McCain likely will go for someone from outside Washington — most probably a governor. For the four-term Arizona senator, that would offset his 25 years in Congress, muting a target for Democrats — his Washington-insider status.

“John McCain certainly isn’t a creature of the Beltway in most respects, but he has been in Congress awhile, so having someone on the ticket who can talk about change will help,” said Dan Schnur, who was communications director for McCain’s 2000 presidential campaign.

Mr. Schnur said the “two most likely plausible ones that I hear bandied about” are South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Another outsider is newly elected Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, a rising star in the Republican Party.

The man or woman whom Mr. McCain selects will almost definitely be more conservative than the moderate maverick senator and likely will be popular among evangelicals, such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, or race dropout Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor.

“He needs a running mate who can send a strong signal to conservatives, that their priorities are important to him,” Mr. Schnur said.

Mr. Jindal stands up well there, too, as conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh, who has excoriated Mr. McCain as a traitor to the conservative movement, recently dubbed the governor “the next Ronald Reagan.”

The candidate could well be from the South — Mr. Sanford and Mr. Jindal fit that bill — or maybe the East — Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, an independent who split with the Democratic Party and has backed Mr. McCain — fills that criteria. But making a choice based on region no longer appears to be as important as it once was.

“I don’t think that’s very important this time,” said Pat Toomey, president of the anti-tax Club for Growth and former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania. “In this race and in this context, ideological balance is much more important.”

The final rule is one George H.W. Bush knew only too well, and it will be much more important than it has ever been: The vice presidential choice will almost certainly be young, maybe even in his 30s, to offset the fact that if elected, Mr. McCain would be 72 on Inauguration Day — the oldest president ever sworn in.

For the record, Mr. Sanford and Mr. Pawlenty are both 47 — a year older than the Democrat now selling change in Washington, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. Mr. Jindal, at just 36, barely meets the constitutional age required to run for president. Then-Sen. Dan Quayle of Indiana, Mr. Bush’s running mate in 1988, was just 40 when he was tapped to balance out the ticket.

Some candidates appear to be eager for the job — Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who was at last night”s party, makes no bones about his openness to the slot. And many political pundits speculate that Mr. Huckabee, who is still battling Mr. McCain for the nomination, is positioning himself as the clear choice.

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