Running mate guessing game begins

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It's too early — way too early, ridiculously early — but like it or not, the sweepstakes for the Republican veep nomination already has begun.

Photos:Potomac primaries

With Sen. John McCain quickly becoming the apparent Republican presidential nominee, talk at his Virginia victory party last night was already shifting to whom he would pick — could pick, should pick — as his vice presidential running mate.

The inside-the-Beltway sport of trying to divine a presidential candidate's running mate comes with several tried-and-true rules, beginning with defining what qualities will offset the political weaknesses at the top of the ticket.

First, Mr. McCain likely will go for someone from outside Washington — most probably a governor. For the four-term Arizona senator, that would offset his 25 years in Congress, muting a target for Democrats — his Washington-insider status.

"John McCain certainly isn't a creature of the Beltway in most respects, but he has been in Congress awhile, so having someone on the ticket who can talk about change will help," said Dan Schnur, who was communications director for McCain's 2000 presidential campaign.

Mr. Schnur said the "two most likely plausible ones that I hear bandied about" are South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Another outsider is newly elected Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, a rising star in the Republican Party.

The man or woman whom Mr. McCain selects will almost definitely be more conservative than the moderate maverick senator and likely will be popular among evangelicals, such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, or race dropout Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor.

"He needs a running mate who can send a strong signal to conservatives, that their priorities are important to him," Mr. Schnur said.

Mr. Jindal stands up well there, too, as conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh, who has excoriated Mr. McCain as a traitor to the conservative movement, recently dubbed the governor "the next Ronald Reagan."

The candidate could well be from the South — Mr. Sanford and Mr. Jindal fit that bill — or maybe the East — Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, an independent who split with the Democratic Party and has backed Mr. McCain — fills that criteria. But making a choice based on region no longer appears to be as important as it once was.