Bloomberg polls heavily on presidential prospects

New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg has been polling in all 50 states to assess the prospects of an independent candidacy in the November presidential election, it was reported yesterday.

Although Mr. Bloomberg repeatedly has denied he is running, insisting earlier this week at a bipartisan conference of centrist political leaders in Norman, Okla., that he is “not a candidate,” he has been conducting a costly state-by-state voter analysis for months that could be used to mount a campaign for the White House, the Associated Press and other news organizations reported yesterday.

CNN reported that a source “very familiar with the mayor’s deliberations” said he would decide in early March whether to mount an independent candidacy.

Frank McKay, chairman of the New York Independence Party, said he has been receiving phone calls about Mr. Bloomberg’s polling from across the country, including Minnesota, New Mexico and Wyoming, since early December and that the “pace of the polling appears to have picked up over the past two weeks,” Newsday reported yesterday.

“It’s all coming down to one word — polling — and he’s doing a ton of it,” Mr. McKay told the New York newspaper.

Other pollsters familiar with Mr. Bloomberg’s polling and analytical efforts confirmed yesterday that they are far more detailed and comprehensive than has been reported.

“I understand that there is a [campaign] blueprint already for all 50 states that includes how to get on the ballot in each state, the dates and schedules of getting on the ballot, and friendly people who are likely to support him,” independent pollster John Zogby said.

Mr. Bloomberg seemed to lay out the justification for an independent candidacy at the Oklahoma forum, which was attended by a who’s who of moderate political leaders, including former Sen. David L. Boren, Oklahoma Democrat and now president of the University of Oklahoma, who organized the event, former Sen. Sam Nunn, Georgia Democrat, and former Sen. Charles S. Robb, Virginia Democrat.

Focusing on the political gridlock that has gripped Washington, Mr. Bloomberg told those at the meeting: “People have stopped working together. Government is dysfunctional. There is no accountability today. Nobody is holding themselves accountable to the standards of what they promised when they ran for office.”

Political analysts said yesterday that Mr. Bloomberg’s decision would depend on who wins the Republican and Democratic party nominations.

“If both major parties nominate candidates as seen outside the mainstream and not interested in ending political polarization, then there might be space for an independent effort,” said Bill Galston, a Democratic strategist who was President Clinton’s chief domestic adviser.

“My guess is that if you talk candidly with the folks who got together in Oklahoma, they would acknowledge that if the Democrats were to pick Barack Obama and the Republicans chose John McCain, that an independent candidacy would be completely pointless,” Mr. Galston said. Both candidates have made ending gridlock a central part of their campaigns.

A 50-state, independent presidential run would be an immensely costly campaign, but money would be no object for the former Wall Street investor and founder of the Bloomberg financial news service. Fortune magazine estimates his net worth at $11.5 billion.